2025-06-10-花旗集团-饮料罐_阵亡将士纪念日销售强劲_确保第二季度表现优异；对CCK_AMBP_BALL的积极解读_13页_557kb

Citi Beverage Can Report Summary

Market Overview

• US Beverage Can Demand: Rose +3.1% YOY in late May, driven by Memorial Day, capturing strong holiday sales.
• Total Volume: +7.0% YOY cumulatively through the date (QTD), significantly beating glass (-0.6%) and plastic (-3.8%) bottles.
• Non-Alcoholic Cans: Strong growth (+10.2% YOY), marks the 4th consecutive quarter of sequential acceleration.
• Market Share: Aluminum cans hold 52.1% share in Nielsen channels, up from 50.4% in 2Q'23. All canmakers benefit.
• Positive Outlook: The demand surge could secure 2Q outperformance compared to industry averages.

Analyst Recommendations

• Crown Holdings (CCK):
  • Action: Reiterate "Buy" rating.
  • Target Price: $119 (9.5x NTM EBITDA).
  • Reason: Top Packaging pick. Benefits least from US beer demand. Strong demand overall, positive valuation relative to 10-year average.
  • Risk Factors: Developed market volume decline, raw material prices/substitution, large customer share shift, asbestos liability, currency risk.
• Ardagh Metal Packaging (AMBP):
  • Action: Reiterate "Buy" rating. (Implied, not explicitly restated at this level, but clear endorsement due to valuation view).
  • Target Price: $4 (8.0x NTM EBITDA).
  • Reason: Well-positioned due to hard seltzer exposure despite scale limitations. Valuation below competitors' assets, driven by growth and specialty mix.
  • Risk Factors: New entrants (significant risk to reaching 2025 targets), currency risk (translation risk, Brazil exposure), project execution risk, new region entry risk, consumer preferences.
• Ball Corp (BALL):
  • Action: Reiterate "Buy" rating (subject to reiteration, not explicitly stated here, but target and analysis warrant it).
  • Target Price: $55 (10.5x NTM EBITDA).
  • Reason: Valuation targets stable despite growth slowdown. Anticipated solid 2Q thanks to non-bev acquisitions.
  • Risk Factors: Threat of new entrants, weakness in new beverage categories (e.g., hard seltzer), large customer share shifts, currency risk.

Key Considerations & Risks

• Competition: Growing threat from new market entrants.
• Consumer Trends: Growth contingent on success of new product launches shifting to cans (e.g., hard seltzer, tea, coffee, juice).
• Currency: Significant exposure for AMBP (Europe, Brazil) and CCK (major international operations).
• Execution: Successful project execution is crucial for AMBP's capacity expansion.
• Market Dynamics: CCK faces a declining US market (major consumer base) and general risks like raw material costs, substitution, and large customer dependency. AMBP faces challenges entering smaller/newer markets.
• Disclosure: Analysis is subject to potential analyst compensation influence and firm conflicts of interest.

Data Summary

• Non-alcoholic canned beverages (+10.2% YOY) drive much of the positive trend, while beer can demand (-1.6% YOY) remained lackluster compared to 1Q but outperformed glass beer bottles (-2.9%).