2025-06-10-花旗集团-金属问题_50_的铝关税推高了近期中西部溢价（MWP）_但下行风险随时间累积；废料流动发生变化_10页_185kb

Citigroup Aluminum Market Analysis Summary

Key Findings and Insights

• Aluminum Tariffs: A 50% Section 232 tariff on imports aims to raise Midwest Premium (MWP) short-term, reaching record levels, but domestic primary supply faces challenges due to difficulties securing long-term power purchase agreements (PFAs) and demand uncertainty. The automotive sector, which accounts for ~40% of semis demand, is projected to slow.

• Demand Trends: US aluminum consumption remained strong in H1 2025 but is expected to weaken in H2 due to softer economic activity. Full-year 2025 consumption is estimated to decline by 1% year-over-year before a cyclical recovery in 2026.

• MWP Outlook: The MWP could experience moderate upside if Canadian exports are attracted at $70c/lb, but existing inventories might delay this. However, risks include lower tariffs, exemptions, or improved import access, which could quickly reduce MWP. Demand slowdown and increased substitution with secondary aluminum cap upside potential.

• Scrap Dynamics: Scrap imports rose 31% y/y in 2025, with European imports surging 580%. This supports global scrap tightness and may offset downward pressure on premiums elsewhere. Secondary aluminum consumption is expected to grow to 51% of semis demand in 2025, reducing reliance on primary metal and limiting MWP increases.

• Downside Risks: Long-term risks include negotiated tariff reductions, exemptions for major exporters, and a potential MWP decline if import access improves. Additionally, overall US demand slowdown and increased scrap substitution may continue to weigh on premiums.

Key Takeaways

• Tariffs drive MWP higher but face supply constraints.
• Demand softening could impact prices in 2025.
• Scrap usage is increasing, supporting secondary supply.
• Future scenarios depend on tariff negotiations and global economic conditions.