世界银行-绿色地平线_东亚可持续能源的未来（英）-2025_29页_1mb

Green Horizon: East Asia's Sustainable Energy Future Summary

Overview

The World Bank report "Green Horizon: East Asia's Sustainable Energy Future" outlines the critical role of East Asia in global decarbonization efforts. Despite lower per capita emissions than OECD and high-income countries, the region accounts for over a third of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and is the largest consumer of coal globally. China, Indonesia, and Viet Nam are responsible for 80% of the region's emissions and 88% of its coal consumption. The power and industrial sectors are the main contributors to energy-related emissions, with the power sector alone accounting for nearly 43% of total emissions in the region.

Key Findings

• Energy Demand Growth: Electricity demand is projected to increase by 25% by 2030 and more than double by 2060. Industrial energy demand is expected to grow significantly in Indonesia and Viet Nam.
• Climate Commitments: China has committed to peak carbon emissions by 2030 and achieve net zero by 2060. Viet Nam and Indonesia have set net zero targets for 2050 and 2060, respectively.
• Renewable Energy (RE) Potential: The focus countries have access to substantial RE potential, including solar, wind, and geothermal resources. China alone has over 11,000 GW of wind potential, while Indonesia has significant geothermal resources.

Renewable Energy Development

• China: A global leader in RE, with solar and wind capacity reaching 1,400 GW by 2024. RE is now the lowest-cost power supply option, and auctions have significantly reduced tariffs.
• Viet Nam: Achieved 22 GW of RE capacity before the pandemic, but growth has slowed due to regulatory uncertainty. The report recommends adopting RE auctions to scale up capacity.
• Indonesia: Has developed dispatchable RE like hydro and geothermal, but VRE (solar and wind) capacity remains low at 750 MW by 2023. The country needs to improve its RE auction framework and invest in grid infrastructure.

Challenges and Solutions

• Grid Integration: The power sector must transition to clean energy to enable industrial decarbonization. VRE deployment needs to be accelerated, and grid modernization is essential to handle the variability of these sources.
• Transmission Infrastructure: Investments in transmission and distribution networks are crucial, especially in Indonesia due to its archipelagic geography. Smart grid solutions and energy storage systems are recommended to enhance grid flexibility.
• Distributed Renewable Energy (DRE): Scaling up DRE is important, particularly in remote areas. However, regulatory and financial barriers, such as limited rooftop space and lack of viable business models, hinder its growth.
• Policy Reforms: Tailored policy reforms are needed to unlock private investment and accelerate RE deployment. Transparent and predictable procurement mechanisms, including competitive auctions, are emphasized.

Industrial Decarbonization

• Key Sectors: Hard-to-abate sectors like iron and steel, chemicals, cement, and petroleum refining dominate industrial energy use in China, Indonesia, and Viet Nam.
• Strategies: Improving energy and material efficiency, increasing electrification, and adopting advanced technologies such as green hydrogen and carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) are vital for industrial decarbonization.
• Economic Benefits: Industrial decarbonization can enhance competitiveness, create jobs, and improve energy security. It also contributes to environmental protection and public health improvement.

Investment Needs

• Cumulative Investments: Industrial decarbonization alone requires USD 1.7 trillion by 2050, while the power sector needs USD 9 trillion from 2020 to 2040.
• Coordinated Planning: Integrated planning across national and regional agencies is essential to align energy and industrial transitions effectively.
• Financing Mechanisms: Sustainable financing and private investment mobilization are necessary. Transparent pricing mechanisms and government-backed guarantees can support this.

Conclusion

The report highlights the transformative potential of renewable energy and industrial decarbonization in East Asia. It calls for synchronized investments, policy reforms, and technological advancements to meet climate goals and ensure a sustainable energy future. The World Bank Group is committed to supporting these efforts through collaboration with governments, industry leaders, and financiers.