20231217-IMF-Zimbabwe_Technical_Assistance_Report-National_Accounts_Mission_12页_444kb

Summary of IMF Technical Assistance Mission to Zimbabwe (October 2023)

Purpose: The IMF's Regional Technical Assistance Center for Southern Africa (AFS) provided technical assistance to help Zimbabwe National Statistics Agency (ZIMSTAT) improve national accounts statistics for macroeconomic policy decisions.

Key Activities:

• Reviewed annual GDP estimates for 2022, emphasizing the use of VAT data from Zimbabwe Revenue Authority (ZIMRA) and other sources.
• Discussed and revised plans for rebasing GDP, setting the new base year at 2025.
• Assessed quarterly GDP estimates for 2019 Q1 to 2023 Q2, noting data quality issues and progress.
• Conducted a detailed technical review and provided recommendations.

Major Findings:

• Annual GDP estimates showed significant improvements after data cleaning, with most residual inflation issues resolved through collaboration with ZIMRA and transition to the NADABAS system.
• GDP rebasing has been changed to a base year of 2025, involving a National Economic Census (NEC) in three phases: business mapping (planned Nov 2023-Apr 2024), business listing (May-Nov 2024), and data collection (planned Nov 2026, now a sample survey instead of full census).
• Quarterly GDP estimates identified some unresolved VAT data entries and anomalies, particularly in 2021 quarter 2, where decreases occurred amid high inflation; labor market discontinuities were addressed.

Priority Recommendations:

• November 2023: Disseminate 2022 annual GDP estimates after ensuring data accuracy.
• December 2023: Finalize rebase plans and resolve remaining VAT data issues affecting quarterly GDP.
• December 2024: Complete Phase 1 of the National Economic Census; begin national accounts rebasing, including product and industry classifications.
• Action Milestones: Conduct business mapping by April 2024, business listing by end-2024, and request technical assistance for questionnaire design.