20231214-IMF-Republic_of_Kazakhstan_Technical_Assistance_Report-National_Accounts_Statistics_Mission_14页_503kb

Summary of the Technical Assistance Mission to the Republic of Kazakhstan

Core Content

This report summarizes the findings and recommendations of a Technical Assistance (TA) mission conducted by the Caucasus, Central Asia, and Mongolia Regional Capacity Development Center (CCAMTAC) in February 20–March 3, 2023. The mission aimed to support the Bureau of National Statistics (BNS) in improving the compilation of quarterly national accounts in the Republic of Kazakhstan, focusing on both the expenditure and production approaches to GDP calculation.

Main Tasks and Outcomes

The mission had three main objectives:

1. Assist the BNS in developing quarterly GDP by expenditure (GDPE) on a discrete basis.
2. Review the existing quarterly GDP by production (GDPP) estimates.
3. Evaluate the methods used for compiling the non-observed economy (NOE) and provide recommendations for improvement.

The BNS staff compiled five Excel files during the mission, with four containing components of GDPE and the fifth aggregating these components into total GDP. These files were used to create chain-linked time series for each GDPE component using the annual overlap technique. The mission also emphasized the importance of benchmarking quarterly data with annual estimates and using price indices for deflation.

Key Findings

• The real GDPE growth rates derived from discrete quarterly data differ significantly from the published cumulative growth rates.
• The nominal level of GDPE is slightly higher than the published estimates due to adjustments made in implementing the 2008 System of National Accounts (SNA).
• Some data sources for GDPE components are unreliable, particularly for research and development and military expenditures.
• The "other inventories" category in the survey questionnaire leads to data misclassification and should be removed.
• The term "goods for trade" in the questionnaire is misleading and should be replaced with "goods for resale" to avoid overestimation of resale inventories and underestimation of finished goods inventories.

Main Recommendations

The mission proposed the following priority recommendations:

• Compile FISIM separately for national and foreign currency to improve accuracy in financial services compilation.
• Exclude FISIM intended for household consumption from intermediate consumption to ensure proper allocation of final consumption expenditure.
• Update estimates of cultivated biological resources by the end of 2023 to reflect changes in data collection methods.
• Estimate quarterly military expenditures and include them in GFCF.
• Compile time series of volume indices to align with international best practices.
• Remove the "other inventories" column from the survey questionnaire.
• Replace "goods for trade" with "goods for resale" in the survey questionnaire.
• Adjust exports and imports of goods to ensure consistency with balance of payments data.
• Compile quarterly supply and use tables (SUT) at the section level of NACE Rev.2 for quarters with large statistical discrepancies between GDPP and GDPE.
• Identify and adjust the least reliable indicators to reduce statistical discrepancies.

Priority Actions and Status (as of August 2023)

Detailed Technical Assessment

A. Quarterly GDP by Expenditure (GDPE)

• Household Final Consumption Expenditure (HFCE): Data is available since 2010, but there was a large and unjustified increase in 2011. This was adjusted by aligning 2010 annual data with the average annual growth rate of subsequent years.
• Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF): Quarterly chained volume estimates were compiled using the annual overlap method. Deflation was done using the producer price index (PPI) for domestic output and the import price index for imported machinery and equipment.
• Changes in Inventories: The BNS uses a method consistent with international best practices, but the "other inventories" category leads to misclassification. It was recommended to remove this category.
• Government Final Consumption: Compiled separately, using the economic and functional classification of the general government budget. The mission noted discrepancies between GDPE and GDPP and suggested adjustments to align them.
• Exports and Imports: Data is compiled using balance of payments data and price indices. The Central Bank recently revised the time series of exports and imports, and the BNS is advised to align with these updates.

B. Quarterly GDP by Production (GDPP)

• Volume Indices: The BNS has made progress in improving the quality of volume indices since the October 2022 mission. The mission emphasized the importance of aligning volume indices for the same month across different years.
• Financial Services Compilation: FISIM is calculated using the weighted average of interest rates on deposits and loans. The mission recommended using separate interest rates for national and foreign currency.
• GVA for Other Financial Services: The mission discussed the compilation of GVA for micro financial organizations, investment funds, credit unions, brokers, pawnshops, and other money lenders. These entities are not covered by standard statistical surveys, so their published data is used, which is often generalized and insufficient for accurate national accounts.

Officials Met During the Mission

Conclusion

The mission highlighted the importance of improving data sources and methodologies to enhance the accuracy and reliability of quarterly national accounts in Kazakhstan. It recommended a series of actions to align the expenditure and production approaches, reduce statistical discrepancies, and improve the compilation of non-observed economy data. The BNS is advised to implement these recommendations to ensure the consistency and quality of national accounts statistics.