2025-05-15-Jefferies-谷物公司（GNC）_2025年上半年业绩-初步观察强劲表现_7页_175kb

Equity Research: GrainCorp Ltd (GNC AU) - May 14, 2025

Flash Note

• Rating: BUY
• U-EBITDA: A$202m in 1H25 (+5% beat JEF, +16% beat Street)
• Guidance Upgrade: FY25 U-EBITDA range A$285-325m, U-NPAT range A$65-95m
• Price Target: AUD7.15 (^ prior day close)
• Market Cap: AUD1.6B

Key Highlights (1H25 Performance)

• Total U-EBITDA: A$202m vs JEF's A$187m (+5% beat)
• Agribusiness U-EBITDA: A$141m vs JEF's A$139m (+1% beat)
• Nutrition & Energy (N&E) U-EBITDA: A$75m vs JEF's A$62m (+21% beat)
• U-NPAT: A$69m (in line with JEF)
• Interim DPS: 24c vs JEF's 15c (9c beat)

Management Outlook

• Strong balance sheet positions firm well for risk management and capitalizing on opportunities.
• Summer rainfall supports "above-average crop" potential in Queensland and Northern NSW.
• Adverse conditions noted in Victoria/Southern NSW; autumn/winter rainfall crucial.
• 1H25 results beat due to better-than-expected N&E segment performance.

Valuation & Risks

• Valuation: EV/EBITDA (various), PE, DCF. Price target AUD9.00.
• Risks: Adverse weather/climate change, commodity price volatility, transportation costs, hedging failure, logistics risks, sovereign/geopolitical risk, contract inadequacy.
• Upside Risks: Commerciality breakthrough, continued strong East Coast grain output.

Analyst Certification

I certify the views and recommendations in this report accurately reflect my personal views and that no part of my compensation was/will be related to said recommendations (John Campbell, Tom Chapman, Wei Sim).

Investment Recommendation

• Rating: BUY (Target Total Return Buy: 15%+, price below $10: 20%+)
• Price Target: AUD9.00

Disclaimer

This report is Jefferies' investment recommendation based on fundamental analysis. Views are the analysts' personal views. Ratings are based on company fundamentals. Jefferies may have conflicts of interest. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Results can vary. This report is for Jefferies clients only and may not be reproduced without prior written consent.