2025-06-11-Jefferies-TIMEE公司（215A）_第二季度初步印象_中性-销售令人失望但营业利润处于区间上限_8页_175kb

Timee Inc. (215A JP) Equity Research Summary

• Initial Impression and Rating: Neutral with slight negativity due to lower sales, but operating profit (OP) at upper end of range. Jefferies rates Timee "BUY" with a price target of ¥1,800 (+3% from current ¥1,751).

• Q2 Results:

  • Revenue: ¥7.8bn (up 28.0% YoY, exceeding Jefferies' JEF estimate ¥8.20bn)
  • OP: ¥1.85bn (up 60.8% YoY, beating Jeanne's consensus ¥1.72bn estimate)
  • OP Margin: 23.7% (improved from 18.9% last year)
  • Factors: Lower sales resulted from strict protocols on unauthorised accounts and weak food and beverages subsegment (down 2.5% YoY), although OP was strong due to cost discipline.

• Q3 Guidance:

  • Revenue: ¥8.40bn-¥8.55bn (up 27.8%-30% YoY, consistent with previous beats)
  • OP: ¥1.73bn-¥1.77bn (up 61.1%-64.8% YoY)

• Valuation:

  • Price target: ¥1,800, implying 22.6x PER and 3.6x EV/Sales for the forecast year 2026.
  • 52-week high-low: ¥2,235 - ¥930.

• Risks:

  • High growth stock, but risks include increased competition, potential decrease in take rate, and slower growth in key segments.
  • Spot work market expected to grow 5x by 2028.

• Company Overview:

  • Provides matching service for short-term spot work in Japan's venue sector (restaurants, logistics).
  • Market leader with focus on flexible staffing, improving margins through data review and matching.

• Guidance and Analyst Notes:

  • Q3 guidance "sensible" per analysts; ongoing growth in nursing care and other services tested. No signs of stopping return scenarios as of now.