20240614-中国银河-每日晨报_4页_274kb

macro: The recent inflation data, particularly the CPI numbers, have overshadowed the hawkish tone from the Fed's June FOMC meeting. The point table showed only one interest rate cut for 2024, which was stronger than market expectations. However, eight members still support two cuts, indicating that if economic and inflation data continue to weaken, the market should reassess. We maintain our view that the Fed will cut rates in September, and possibly two more times this year.

Strategy: An opportunity exists to position assets around the central bank's stance:

• Gold: Will likely benefit from the anticipated new easing cycle, amid geopolitical stability and the U.S. debt problem remaining as a potential headwind.
• Crude Oil: Demand is expected to peak, while supply surges may cap prices. 这段内容不太专业，需要将其改为： Considering slower global recovery and favorable supply dynamics, the crude oil price center may marginall
  decline.
• U.S. Treasuries: The Fed indicated an interest rate cut by the end of 2024, but a significantly slower pace is more likely until the US economy shows tangible cooling and inflation control.

Risk Factors: undue

Specific Actions

Global economy cooling more than expected recently was noted, but some industrial services were still robust.

For assets, gold saw a modest gain; opinions or data points driving the market.

Final Summary

overall, focus on macro policy Shifts; Major US data points took on greater Importance; Inflation data lowered Fed's immediate Cuts probability envelope, but the door Not fully closed.

style: constrained to key points