IEA-再生能源展望2021和2022（英文）-2021.5-29页_6mb

报告摘要

Summary of Renewable Energy Market Update (2021 and 2022 Outlook)

Core Content

The Renewable Energy Market Update by the International Energy Agency (IEA) provides an overview of the global renewable energy market, highlighting the significant growth in renewable capacity additions in 2020 and the forecast for 2021 and 2022. It outlines the trends in solar PV, wind, and biofuels, along with the impact of policy changes, market dynamics, and supply chain factors.

Main Viewpoints

Renewables saw record growth in 2020, with capacity additions increasing by 45% to 280 GW, the highest year-on-year increase since 1999.
Solar PV and wind were the main drivers of this growth, with solar PV expanding by 23% to 135 GW and wind by 90% to 114 GW.
The “new normal” for renewable capacity additions is expected to continue in 2021 and 2022, with renewables accounting for 90% of global power capacity expansion.
Solar PV is projected to reach 145 GW in 2021 and 162 GW in 2022, making it the dominant renewable technology in the coming years.
Wind capacity additions are expected to decline in 2021 and 2022 due to the phaseout of subsidies and policy transitions, but will still exceed pre-pandemic levels.

Key Information

Global Renewable Capacity Additions

2020: 280 GW, up 45% from 2019.
2021: 270 GW, 50% higher than the 2017–2019 average.
2022: 280 GW, 50% higher than the 2017–2019 average.
Renewables will account for 90% of global power capacity increases in both 2021 and 2022.

Solar PV Trends

2021: Expected to add 145 GW, an 8% increase from 2020.
2022: Forecasted to reach 162 GW, driven by cost reductions and policy support.
Utility-scale PV will dominate the market, increasing from 55% in 2020 to 70% in 2022.
Distributed PV will account for nearly 30% of US PV growth in 2021 and 2022.

Wind Trends

2020: 114 GW, 90% increase from 2019.
2021: 80 GW, 30% lower than 2020, but still 50% higher than the 2017–2019 average.
2022: Slight decline in onshore and offshore wind growth, but still above 2019 levels.
Offshore wind is forecast to rebound to a record 12% share of total wind additions in 2021–2022.

China's Role

China was responsible for 80% of the 2020 renewable capacity increase, largely due to the rush to complete projects before subsidy phase-outs.
2021: Capacity additions are expected to drop by 25% due to policy changes.
2022: Growth is anticipated to rise by 58%, supported by the 14th Five-Year Plan and further cost reductions.

Europe's Growth

Europe's renewable capacity additions are forecast to increase to 44 GW in 2021 and 49 GW in 2022.
Germany, France, Spain, Netherlands, UK, and Turkey are the leading contributors.
The corporate PPA market and policy support are key drivers of growth.

United States

The ITC extension and federal tax credit have improved the outlook for onshore wind.
2021: Onshore wind additions are expected to rise by 25%.
2022: Solar PV and wind will benefit from extended tax credits and cost reductions.
The new infrastructure bill could boost renewable expansion beyond 2022.

India

Renewable capacity additions dropped by 50% in 2020 due to the pandemic.
2021 and 2022: Expected to see record growth as delayed projects are commissioned.
Short-term uncertainty remains due to the surge in Covid-19 cases in April 2021.
DISCOM financial health is a major challenge for deployment.

Viet Nam and ASEAN

2020: Viet Nam's solar PV additions surged due to FIT phaseout, contributing to a 60% increase in regional capacity.
2021–2022: Growth is expected to slow by two-thirds due to reduced incentives and regulatory challenges.

Latin America

Brazil leads in distributed PV growth, driven by its net-metering policy.
Chile and Mexico are expected to see growth from utility-scale projects.
Regulatory changes and cancellation of clean energy certificate auctions may hinder new project development.

Biofuels

2021: Transport biofuel production is expected to rebound to 2019 levels.
2022: Forecasted to increase by 7%.
HVO production is expected to nearly double due to clean fuel standards and policy support in the US.

Corporate PPAs

2020: Corporate PPAs reached a record high, driven by falling wind and PV costs.
2021–2022: Expected to continue growing, with Europe and the US leading in PPA activity.
India and Brazil also show strong PPA development, especially in distributed PV.

Growth Drivers

Competitive auctions in 2020 contributed to record renewable capacity additions, with 75 GW awarded at USD 60/MWh for wind and USD 47/MWh for PV.
Policy support, including tax credits, FITs, and net-metering, continues to drive market expansion.
Cost reductions in solar PV and wind are making these technologies more economically attractive.
Supply chain constraints and rising commodity prices caused short-term price volatility in 2020, but module prices are expected to fall in 2021 due to increased production and supply diversification.

Outlook for 2021 and 2022

Renewables will dominate global power capacity expansion, with 90% of new additions.
China, Europe, and the US are the main contributors to this growth.
India and Brazil are expected to see strong rebounds in 2021 and 2022.
Biofuels and HVO production are forecast to grow, especially in the US.
Corporate PPAs will play a significant role in driving renewable adoption across multiple regions.