IEA-2021-2021年可再生能源前景报告（英文_-2021.5-29页_5mb

Renewable Energy Market Update Summary

Core Content

This document provides an overview of the global renewable energy market trends for 2021 and 2022, with a focus on renewable electricity and biofuels. It highlights the impact of policy changes, market dynamics, and supply chain issues on renewable energy capacity additions and production forecasts.

Main Points and Key Information

Global Renewable Energy Trends (2020-2022)

• Renewables demand growth: Renewables were the only energy source to see increased demand in 2020, despite the pandemic, with global capacity additions reaching nearly 280 GW – the highest year-on-year increase since 1999.
• New Normal for Renewables: The record growth in 2020 has set a new baseline, with renewables expected to account for 90% of new global power capacity additions in both 2021 and 2022.
• Solar PV and Wind Dominance: Solar PV and wind are the primary drivers of renewable growth, with solar PV expected to reach 162 GW in 2022 and wind capacity additions to remain at 80 GW in 2021 and slightly lower in 2022.

Key Market Developments

• China:
  • Accounted for 50% of global renewable capacity additions in 2020, driven by the phase-out of subsidies and the rush to complete projects before deadlines.
  • Expected to see a 25% decline in 2021 due to subsidy phase-out, but still above the 2017-2019 average.
  • Will likely see a 58% increase in 2022, supported by the 14th Five-Year Plan and further cost reductions.
• United States:
  • Tax credit extensions (ITC and PTC) have improved the outlook for onshore wind and solar PV.
  • Renewables are expected to expand significantly in 2021 and 2022, with wind additions increasing by 25%.
  • The new infrastructure bill and "direct-pay" provisions could further boost renewables beyond 2022.
• Europe:
  • Became the second-largest renewable power market in 2021 and 2022, with capacity additions reaching 44 GW in 2021 and 49 GW in 2022.
  • Policy support, including corporate PPAs, and declining PV costs are key growth drivers.
• India:
  • Suffered a 50% decline in capacity additions in 2020 due to pandemic-related delays and grid challenges.
  • Expected to rebound in 2021 and 2022 as delayed projects are commissioned, though recent Covid-19 surges create short-term uncertainty.
  • A proposed USD 40 billion reform to improve DISCOM operations could support future growth.
• Viet Nam:
  • Experienced a record solar PV boom in 2020 due to FIT phase-out, but this is expected to slow in 2021 and 2022.
  • Solar PV is becoming more cost-competitive, which will help maintain growth despite policy changes.
• ASEAN:
  • Wind and solar PV growth slowed in 2021 and 2022 compared to 2020, due to policy changes and delays in Indonesia and Thailand.
  • Solar PV is expected to remain a key driver, with 13 GW added in 2020.
• Latin America:
  • Renewables expansion resumed in 2021 and 2022 after delays in 2020.
  • Brazil's net-metering policy and corporate PPA market are key enablers for distributed PV growth.
  • Chile's utility-scale market is also expected to drive expansion, while Mexico faces challenges due to the cancellation of clean energy certificate auctions.

Biofuels and HVO

• Transport biofuel production is expected to rebound to 2019 levels in 2021, with a 7% increase in 2022.
• Hydrotreated Vegetable Oil (HVO) production capacity is forecast to nearly double in the next two years, mainly driven by US clean fuel standards and policy support.

Corporate Procurement and PPAs

• Corporate PPAs had another record year in 2020, with a 25% increase in volume due to declining costs.
• The US and Europe remain the largest corporate PPA markets, with Spain and Sweden leading in PPA activity.
• In Brazil, corporate PPAs and bilateral contracts outside of auction schemes support continued expansion.

Solar PV Market Trends

• Solar PV capacity additions are expected to reach 145 GW in 2021 and 162 GW in 2022, with utility-scale projects dominating the market.
• The share of utility-scale PV in annual additions is expected to rise from 55% in 2020 to 70% in 2022.
• Module prices increased due to supply chain issues and rising commodity prices, but are expected to fall back to below 2020 levels by the end of 2021.

Wind Market Trends

• Global wind capacity additions increased by 90% in 2020, with China accounting for two-thirds of the growth.
• Onshore wind is expected to decline in 2021 and 2022, but remain 35% above 2019 levels.
• Offshore wind is expected to rebound to 12% of total wind additions, up from 10% in 2019.

Policy and Market Drivers

• Competitive auctions in 2020 and 2019 are the main basis for 2021 and 2022 forecasts.
• Policy deadlines in key markets, such as the phase-out of FITs, have driven significant project deployment in the short term.
• Cost reductions and tax incentives continue to be key drivers for solar PV and wind expansion.
• Supply chain constraints and rising commodity prices temporarily impacted module prices, but are expected to ease by 2021.

Summary Table

Conclusion

The global renewable energy market is on a strong growth trajectory, with solar PV and wind leading the expansion. While China's policy changes have slowed its capacity additions, other regions like Europe, the US, and Latin America are compensating. Policy support, declining costs, and corporate procurement are key factors driving the growth of renewables, particularly solar PV, in the coming years. Despite short-term supply chain and market challenges, the long-term outlook remains positive, with renewables expected to dominate global power capacity expansion.