2024-01-10-IEA-IEA2023可再生能源报告-Renewables_2023_143页_5mb

IEA Renewables 2023 Report Summary

Key Findings Overview:
Renewables saw record growth in 2023, with capacity additions reaching nearly 510 GW, a 50% increase from 2022. Solar PV dominated global expansion (74% of new renewable capacity in electricity), with China leading due to lower costs and supportive policies. By 2028, renewables are projected to account for 42% of global electricity generation, driven by policies from IEA members, especially G20 countries which held ~90% of global renewable capacity.

2025 Landmark Milestones:

• 2024: Variable renewable generation surpasses hydropower.
• 2025: Renewables overtake coal as largest electricity source; wind and solar each surpass nuclear.
• Offshore wind faces significant challenges due to rising costs and permitting delays in Europe and US.

Policy & Challenges:

• Accelerated Growth Needed: Governments must address policy uncertainties, grid congestion, and permitting delays to meet tripling goals by 2030.
• Grid Integration: ~3 TW of renewable projects are in grid queues, risking delays and costs.
• Solar Glut Risks: Oversupply in manufacturing may reduce module prices by ~50%, potentially stranding financing in some markets.

Global Leaders & Trends:

• China: Drives ~60% of global solar/PV growth, already meeting 2030 wind/solar targets ahead of schedule.
• U.S.: Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) boosts solar/wind, but macroeconomic challenges test project economics.
• Europe: Distributed solar PV surges due to high electricity prices, but onshore wind/ocean energy growth slowed.

Competitiveness & Costs:
Renewable generation costs (LCOE/VALCOE) are now cheaper than new fossil fuels in ~96% of cases globally, especially in advanced economies. However, macroeconomic headwinds since 2022 increased financing costs, banking projects.

Unmet Ambition Gap:
Without policy acceleration, global renewable capacity will increase to ~7,300 GW by 2028, short of the ~11,000 GW target of the NZE Scenario. Key barriers include: policy delays, insufficient grid investment, permitting bottlenecks, and financing gaps in developing economies.