【iea】2024年可再生能源报告_177页_5mb

Renewables 2024: Key Insights and Forecasts to 2030
The International Energy Agency (IEA) reports that global renewable energy capacity growth is projected to reach 5,500 GW by 2030, surpassing current government targets by 25% but still falling short of the COP28 tripling goal of 11,000 GW. Solar PV and wind dominate renewable capacity expansion (95% of global growth), driven by declining costs and supportive policies. China leads the expansion, accounting for 60% of global renewable capacity growth, with significant contributions from Brazil, India, and the U.S. The EU and U.S. are projected to double their growth rates by 2030, while India's rapid expansion is supported by auction reforms and manufacturing incentives.

Renewable fuels, including bioenergy and hydrogen, are critical for decarbonizing hard-to-abate sectors like industry and transport. Bioenergy drives 95% of renewable fuel growth, with solid bioenergy expanding in sub-Saharan Africa, India, and China. However, the IEA notes that renewable hydrogen and e-fuels lag, with only 4% of global hydrogen production expected to come from renewables by 2030. Policy improvements, such as incentives for green hydrogen and e-fuel mandates, are essential to meet net zero targets by 2050.

Challenges persist, including policy uncertainty, grid integration difficulties, and high financing costs in emerging economies. The report highlights the need for streamlined permitting, enhanced grid infrastructure, and removal of fossil fuel subsidies to accelerate adoption. Renewable electricity usage in transport is set to increase, but only to 6% of demand by 2030. The accelerated case envisions significant progress, but implementation hurdles remain, particularly in regions like Latin America and Africa.

Overall, renewable energy growth is expected to meet 60% of global electricity demand by 2030, with solar PV surpassing wind and hydropower. However, the transition requires addressing curtailment in systems with high variable renewable energy (VRE) penetration, advancing storage solutions, and fostering cross-border collaboration. The report underscores the importance of policy frameworks and market mechanisms in achieving the net zero scenario, despite persistent gaps in ambition and execution.