20180831-广发证券_香港_-Dim_Sum_Express_4页_457kb

报告摘要

Market	1D (%)	1M (%)	YTD (%)	EPS 18E (%)	EPS 19E (%)	P/E 18E	P/E 19E
HSI	-0.9	-1.5	-5.9	37.3	11.1	11.4	10.3
HSCEI	-1.0	-0.5	-6.3	16.9	11.1	7.8	7.1
MXCN	-1.4	-3.0	-8.1	46.7	16.1	12.4	10.7
SHSZ300	-1.1	-4.7	-16.9	33.8	15.2	11.3	9.8
SHCOMP	-1.1	-4.8	-17.2	37.4	13.5	11.0	9.6
SZCOMP	-1.5	-6.9	-22.8	70.5	21.6	16.6	13.6
INDU	-0.5	2.2	5.1	43.8	9.1	16.7	15.3
SPX	-0.4	3.0	8.5	48.3	10.3	18.0	16.3
CCMP	-0.3	5.4	17.2	84.3	16.3	24.1	20.7
UKX	-0.6	-3.0	-2.2	172.3	7.7	13.4	12.5
NYK	-0.6	0.8	-0.2	65.9	13.0	16.1	14.3

HK Ticket Company	Local (HK$)	Daily (%)	ADR (US$)	Daily (%)
700 TENCENT	357.4	-0.94	43.0	-6.97
1398 ICBC	5.8	-1.19	14.6	-2.80
939 CCB	7.0	-1.27	17.6	-2.87
857 PETROCHINA	6.1	0.00	74.7	-4.27
941 CHINA MOBILE	73.5	-2.00	47.6	-0.77
5 HSBC	69.5	-0.93	44.3	-1.66
2318 PING AN	76.3	0.46	31.0	4.28
3988 BANK OF CHINA	3.6	-1.11	5.6	-2.60
386 SINOPEC	7.9	-1.01	28.8	-2.17
1299 AIA	67.9	-0.88	10.4	6.91

Overview: ChinaAMC launched its first retirement fund, marking the beginning of retirement funds becoming the third pillar of endowment insurance in China.
Three Pillars: Public pensions, occupational pensions, and personal pensions.
Current Situation: Personal pensions in China lag significantly behind public pensions.
Impact of Retirement Funds: Expected to increase the size of the endowment product market and improve the market environment.
Tax Incentives: Commercial endowment insurance pilot project introduced in April 2018, with a pre-tax deduction limit of 6% of total income or Rmb1,000 per month.
Growth Potential: Based on US experience, about half of mutual fund assets are expected to be invested in the stock market, offering growth opportunities.
Risks: Development of retirement funds may fall short of expectations.

Revenue Growth: Operating revenue growth in the hotel sector slowed since May, but the decline is not significant.
RevPAR Trends: RevPAR growth for 2017 was 3.5% YoY, but declined to 3.2% YoY in May/June/July 2018.
Market Conditions: The sector has shifted from beta (sensitive to macroeconomic factors) to alpha (less sensitive, more driven by upgrades and concentration).
Leadership Performance: Earnings growth remains high for leading players, and current valuations are relatively cheap.
Consumer Data: 2Q18 consumer data raised market concerns, but the outlook remains positive.
Supply and Demand: Hotel supply growth has declined, while demand remains slightly higher than supply.
Risks: Macroeconomic changes may impact the sector, and new-openings growth may be slower than expected.

Buy: Expected to outperform benchmark by more than 15%
Accumulate: Expected to outperform benchmark by more than 5% but not more than 15%
Hold: Expected stock relative performance ranges between -5% and 5%
Underperform: Expected to underperform benchmark by more than 5%

This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to buy or sell securities.
GF Securities (Hong Kong) accepts no liability for losses arising from the use of the materials.
Investments involve risks, and past performance does not guarantee future results.
The views and opinions expressed are those of the analysts and do not represent the views of GF Securities (Hong Kong) or its affiliates.

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