20180817-广发证券_香港_-Dim_Sum_Express_4页_457kb

报告摘要

Market	1D Chg (%)	1M Chg (%)	YTD Chg (%)	18E EPS (%)	19E EPS (%)	18E P/E	19E P/E
HSI	-0.8	-3.8	-9.4	36.2	11.1	11.1	10.0
HSCEI	-0.5	-1.1	-10.5	15.3	10.6	7.6	6.9
MXCN	-0.3	-8.5	-12.5	46.2	16.0	11.8	10.2
SHSZ300	-0.5	-5.0	-18.7	34.3	15.5	11.0	9.6
SHCOMP	-0.7	-3.3	-18.2	37.7	13.7	10.8	9.5
SZCOMP	-1.0	-8.3	-22.8	72.9	22.0	16.3	13.4
INDU	1.6	1.7	3.4	43.6	9.1	15.1	15.9
SPX	0.8	1.1	6.2	48.2	10.4	17.6	15.9
CCMP	0.4	-0.6	13.1	84.5	16.4	23.3	20.0
UKX	0.8	-0.9	-1.7	174.4	7.8	13.4	12.4
NYK	0.7	-1.6	-1.9	64.4	13.3	16.0	14.1

HK Ticket Company	Local (HK$)	Daily (%)	ADR (US$)	Daily (%)
700 TENCENT	325.8	-3.04	42.7	3.49
1398 ICBC	5.6	-0.53	14.3	0.74
939 CCB	6.8	-0.59	17.2	0.53
857 PETROCHINA	5.7	-1.03	72.8	0.51
941 CHINA MOBILE	72.5	1.54	46.3	2.59
5 HSBC	70.2	-1.96	45.1	-0.42
2318 PING AN	68.5	-0.51	31.0	4.28
3988 BANK OF CHINA	3.5	-0.28	5.7	-0.61
386 SINOPEC	7.2	-1.91	28.0	0.65
1299 AIA	65.6	-1.94	8.9	-7.28

Demand Growth: Natural gas demand is expected to grow due to increasing household consumption and coal-to-gas substitution in cities and industrial areas.
Seasonal Demand: Demand is significantly seasonal, with a peak during the winter heating season (November to March).
Supply Outlook: Supply is expected to increase gradually due to domestic exploration and the operation of new gas pipelines (Central Asia-China and China-Russian Eastern) in 2019-20.
Price Trends: LNG prices are expected to rebound during the peak season, and a price gap between imported gas and liquefied gas will persist in the medium term.
Stock Recommendations: Focus on upstream resource sectors and midstream LNG transshipment stocks. Methanol and urea producers using coal as a raw material are likely to benefit, with recommendations for Guanghui Energy (600256 CH) and ENN Ecological Holdings (600803 CH).
Risks: Coal-to-gas substitution progress may fall short of expectations, and winter natural gas consumption could be lower than anticipated.

Power Consumption: Power consumption rose significantly in 1H18, with total power consumption reaching 3,229.1bn kWh, up 9.4% YoY.
Utilization Hours: Average utilization hours for power generators increased by 68 hours YoY to 1,859 hours in 1H18, with wind power utilization hours rising sharply.
Transmission Equipment: The State Grid conducted a significant third round of bidding for transmission and transformation equipment in June, with a rebound in secondary equipment tendering. However, substation monitoring and relay protection equipment tenders decreased by 49.21% and 35.35% YoY, respectively.
Tender for HVDC Project: The China Southern Power Grid tendered for a high-voltage direct current (VSC-HVDC) project at Wudongde Hydropower Station, with results expected in late August.
Risks: Potential risks include reduced power grid investment, failure to meet power reform expectations, and slower-than-expected recovery in the manufacturing sector.

Company Ratings:
- Buy: Stock expected to outperform benchmark by more than 15%.
- Accumulate: Stock expected to outperform benchmark by more than 5% but not more than 15%.
- Hold: Expected stock relative performance ranges between -5% and 5%.
- Underperform: Stock expected to underperform benchmark by more than 5%.
Sector Ratings:
- Positive: Sector expected to outperform benchmark by more than 10%.
- Neutral: Expected sector relative performance ranges between -10% and 10%.
- Cautious: Sector expected to underperform benchmark by more than 10%.

This report is prepared by GF Securities (Hong Kong) for informational purposes only.
It does not constitute an offer to buy or sell any securities or a recommendation for investment.
The information and opinions in this report are subject to change without notice.
GF Securities (Hong Kong) accepts no liability for any loss arising from the use of the materials presented in the report.

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