20251212-招银国际-Fixed_Income_Daily_Market_Update_5页_760kb

Fixed Income Market Update (December 12, 2025)

Market Performance

• Primary Market: Today's RMB bond issuance saw 120 credits with RMB135bn; month-to-date, 876 bonds raised RMB887bn (+18.5% YoY). Offshore new issues were none priced/pipelined.
• Secondary Market: Top performers include LNGFOR (1.3%), FUTLAN (1.4%), GLPSP (1.1%); underperformers include GARUDA (-4.6%), VNKRLE (-1.0%).
• Asian Developed High Yield (ADHY): Noted moves in various sectors, including SOFTBK (lower) and China properties.

Macro Analysis

• China's 2025 GDP slowed to potentially 4.9% (est. vs 5% prev), with YoY acceleration to 5.0% likely due to stimulus.
• PBOC forecast to cut RRR by 50bps and LPRs by total 30bps in 2026; broad fiscal deficit ratio to rise slightly to 8.5%.
• Policy focus includes stabilizing property with CBICL-guaranteed bonds and boosting consumption via trade-in subsidies; USD/RMB expected to weaken.

Bond Analysis

• FUTLAN/FTLNHD: 10th CBICL-guaranteed bond: RMB1.75bn, 5-year @ 4.0%, refinancing of prior bond; fair pricing vs recovery prospects.
• Fed Action: Bond market liquidity slowed post-FOMC, impacting two-way flows and yields.
• Chinese Macroeconomic Policy: CB expects gradual economic deceleration followed by stabilisation, focusing on AI-driven growth and sustainable energy.