20140207-Maybank_KERPL-StarHub_No_dividend_joy_this_time_11页_671kb

报告摘要

StarHub (STH SP) Summary

Core Information

Share Price: SGD4.23
Target Price: SGD4.98 (+18%)
Market Cap (USD): 5.7B
ADTV (USD): 5M
Sector: Telecommunications
Country: Singapore
Recommendation: BUY
Dividend Yield: Almost 5%
Key Researcher: Gregory Yap
Contact: (65) 6432 1450 | gyap@maybank-ke.com.sg

FY13 Results

Net Profit: SGD371m, up 3% YoY against forecast of SGD375m.
Dividend: Final dividend of 5 SGD cents a share proposed, full-year dividend at 20 SGD cents a share.
EBITDA Margin: 32.9%, beat guidance of 32%.
Net Debt/EBITDA: 0.58x, still at multi-year lows.
Dividend Cover: 1.0x.

Dividend Policy

Dividend Maintenance: No increase in FY14E dividends, maintained at 20 SGD cents a share.
Reason for No Hike: Higher 2014 capex expected at 13% of service revenue (vs. 12.8% in 2013).
Future Outlook: Dividend increase possible due to low net debt/EBITDA ratio.

Investment Analysis

Target Price: SGD4.98, slightly lowered due to higher capex assumption.
Market Performance: Share price up 6.0% in 12 months, outperformed relative to country by 17.3%.
Catalysts:
- Potential margin upside from enterprise business.
- Lower handset subsidies.
- NBN provisioning easing with government support.

Financial Metrics

Metric	FY12A	FY13A	FY14E	FY15E	FY16E
Revenue (SGD m)	2,421.6	2,359.3	2,410.7	2,456.9	2,506.8
EBITDA (SGD m)	719.8	732.7	758.2	784.3	807.1
Core Net Profit (SGD m)	359.3	370.7	386.3	403.6	417.8
Net DPS (cts)	20.0	20.0	20.0	20.0	20.0
Core FD P/E (x)	20.3	19.7	18.9	18.1	17.5
P/BV (x)	nm	nm	nm	39.6	28.3
Net Dividend Yield (%)	4.7	4.7	4.7	4.7	4.7
ROAA (%)	20.3	20.3	21.0	21.6	21.5
EV/EBITDA (x)	9.6	10.7	10.2	9.8	9.4
Net Debt/EBITDA (%)	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.5	0.4

Key Ratios

Ratio	FY12A	FY13A	FY14E	FY15E	FY16E
Revenue Growth (%)	4.7	(2.6)	2.2	1.9	2.0
EBITDA Growth (%)	6.5	1.8	3.5	3.4	2.9
EBIT Growth (%)	12.3	3.6	4.1	4.5	3.6
Pretax Profit Growth (%)	13.6	3.7	4.3	4.7	3.7
Core Net Profit Growth (%)	13.9	3.2	4.2	4.5	3.5
EBITDA Margin (%)	29.7	31.1	31.5	31.9	32.2
EBIT Margin (%)	18.5	19.6	20.0	20.5	20.8
Pretax Profit Margin (%)	17.8	19.0	19.4	19.9	20.2
Payout Ratio (%)	95.7	92.8	88.9	85.1	82.2
Net Debt/Equity (%)	nm	nm	391.4	223.4	123.4

Share Price Performance

Period	Absolute (%)	Relative to Country (%)
1 Month	0.7	6.3
3 Months	(3.2)	4.8
12 Months	6.0	17.3

Key Data

Metric	Value
52w High/Low (SGD)	4.73/3.93
Free Float (%)	32.4
Issued Shares (m)	1,722
Market Capitalization	SGD7.3B
Major Shareholders:
- Singapore Technologies Telemedia	56%
- Nippon Telegraph & Telephone Corp.	10%
- BlackRock Fund Advisors	1%

Research Offices

Regional:
- WONG Chew Hann, CA – Regional Head of Institutional Research
- ONG Seng Yeow – Regional Head of Retail Research
- Alexander GARTHOFF – Institutional Product Manager
- Others include Banking & Finance, Consumer, etc.
Economics:
- Suhaimi LIJAS – Chief Economist (Singapore | Malaysia)
- Luz LORENZO – Economist (Philippines)
- Tim LEELAHAPHAN – Economist (Thailand)
- Juniman – Chief Economist, BII (Indonesia)
- Josua PARDEDE – Economist / Industry Analyst, BII (Indonesia)
Malaysia:
- WONG Chew Hann, CA Head of Research
- Desmond CH'NG, ACA – Banking & Finance
- LIAW Thong Jung – Oil & Gas - Regional • Shipping
- ONG Chee Ting, CA – Plantations - Regional
- Mohsin AZIZ – Aviation - Regional - Petrochem
- Yin Shao Yang, CPA – Gaming - Regional Media
- Wong Wei Sum, CFA – Power Telcos
- Others include Property & REITs, Consumer - Regional, etc.
Hong Kong / China:
- Howard WONG – Head of Research
- Alexander LATZER – Oil & Gas - Regional
- Jacqueline KO, CFA – Metals & Mining
- Karen KWAN – Consumer
- Others include Property & REITs, Transport & Industrials, etc.
India:
- Jiqar SHAH – Head of Research
- Anubhav GUPTA – Metal & Mining Capital Goods Property
- Urmil SHAH – Technology - Media
- Others include Oil & Gas, Consumer, etc.
Singapore:
- NG Wee Siang – Head of Research
- Gregory YAP – SMID Caps - Regional
- Wilson LIEW – Technology & Manufacturing - Telcos
- ONG Kian Lin – Property Developers
- Others include S-REITs, Consumer - Regional, etc.
Indonesia:
- Wilianto IE – Head of Research
- Rahmi MARINA – Banking & Finance
- Aurelia SETIABUDI – Property
- Anthony YUNUS – Consumer - Poultry
- Others include Telcos - Media, etc.
Philippines:
- Luz LORENZO – Head of Research
- Laura DY-LIACCO – Utilities • Conglomerates • Telcos
- Lovell SARREAL – Consumer - Media - Cement
- Others include Strategy, Consumer, etc.
Thailand:
- Maria LAPIZ – Head of Institutional Research
- Jesada TECHAHUSDIN, CFA – Financial Services
- Kittisorn PRUITIPAT, CFA, FRM – Real Estate
- Others include Strategy, Auto - Conmat - Contractor - Steel, etc.
Vietnam:
- LE Hong Lien, ACCA – Head of Institutional Research
- THAI Quang Trung, CFA – Deputy Manager, Institutional Research
- TRUONG Thanh Hang – Real Estate Construction Materials
- Others include Strategy, Consumer, etc.

Appendix I: Disclaimers

This research report is for general circulation and informational purposes only.
It should not be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy the securities mentioned.
Investors should note that the report is not a recommendation and should not be relied upon as such.

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