20150625-Maybank_KERPL-Daily_Edge_11页_885kb

报告摘要

Daily Edge Summary - June 25, 2015

Core Content

This document provides an overview of the Philippine stock market and specific insights on the telecoms sector as of June 24, 2015. It includes key financial metrics, analyst views, and market updates.

Key Financial Metrics

Index/Stock	Value (June 24)	% Change
PSEi	7,643.33	1.22
Turnover (PHPm)	6,190.85	2.09
PLDT ADR (USD)	63.77	1.71
PLDT ADR (PHP)	2,877.62	1.76
Ave interbank rate	2.50	0 bps
PHP/USD rate	45.15	(0.04)

Analysts

Luz Lorenzo (Head of Research / Economist)
Ramon Adviento
Michael Bengson
Rommel Rodrigo
Lovell Sarreal
Katherine Tan

Top Idea

Telecoms Race to serve the digital consumer
- There was a marked divergence in 1Q performance between GLO and TEL.
- Maintain forecasts of GLO until signs of sustainable growth are seen.
- Valuations are fair in the sector.
- Maintain NEUTRAL view on the sector.

Market Talk

Utilities

Hydropower Complex in Ifugao: SN Aboitiz Power-Ifugao (SNAPI) plans to build a 380MW hydropower complex in Lagawe, Ifugao, consisting of:
- Alimit Hydroelectric (120MW)
- Olilicon Hydroelectric (10MW)
- Alimit Pumped-Storage Hydroelectric (250MW)
DOE Circular for ILP Dispatch: The Department of Energy issued a circular to temporarily reduce power demand by turning on generator sets, which complements the ERC's expanded ILP scope. Trading participants must submit schedules for bilateral quantities from CCs or DCCs.

Mining

Alcantara consolidates control of Tampakan project: The Tampakan project, with reserves of 15m tons of copper and 18m tons of gold, is now under Alcantara group's control after Glencore PLC sold its stake.

Telecoms Sector Analysis

Analyst: Michael Bengson
Sector View: NEUTRAL (unchanged)
1Q15 Earnings: Grew by 2.6% YoY on total service revenue growth of 4%.
Performance Divergence:
- GLO: Core net income grew by 25% YoY, total service revenue increased by 13% YoY, and mobile subscribers rose by 13% YoY.
- TEL: Core net income declined by 5% YoY, total service revenue decreased by 2% YoY, and mobile subscribers dropped by 1% YoY.
Reason for Divergence: GLO's early promotional activities (e.g., "Free Facebook" in 2013) and partnerships with content providers (e.g., Viber, Spotify, NBA, Disney) helped it gain market share.
TEL's Response: TEL launched its free internet promotion in late 2014 and is adjusting its product offering to better serve the digital consumer. Capex for 2015 is expected to exceed PHP40b.

Earnings and Valuations Table (June 24, 2015)

Stock	Share Price (PHP)	Target Price (PHP)	Upside (%)	Rec	Year	Net Profit (PHPm)	EPS (PHP)	EPS Growth (%)	PE (x)	DPS (PHP)	Yield (%)	BV/share (PHP)	P/BV (x)	Gearing (%)	ROA (%)
BDO	110.00	123.00	12	BUY	2014	22,466	6.27	0.9	17.5	2.10	1.9	48.56	2.3	1.3	13.5
BDO	110.00	123.00	12	BUY	2015F	25,723	7.18	14.5	15.6	2.10	1.9	53.71	2.0	1.3	14.0
BDO	110.00	123.00	12	BUY	2016F	30,147	8.42	17.2	13.1	2.10	1.9	60.93	1.8	1.3	14.7
BPI	97.70	101.00	3	HOLD	2014	18,039	4.62	(10.9)	21.1	0.91	0.9	36.64	2.7	1.4	14.5
BPI	97.70	101.00	3	HOLD	2015F	21,002	5.34	15.4	26.3	0.91	2.8	39.59	2.5	1.4	14.0
BPI	97.70	101.00	3	HOLD	2016F	24,114	6.13	14.8	15.9	0.91	2.5	44.18	2.2	1.4	14.6
CHIB	46.00	51.00	11	HOLD	2014	5,116	3.08	(5.9)	14.9	1.00	2.2	32.09	1.4	1.2	10.2
CHIB	46.00	51.00	11	HOLD	2015F	5,589	3.26	5.8	14.1	1.00	2.2	33.46	1.4	1.2	9.9
CHIB	46.00	51.00	11	HOLD	2016F	6,322	3.68	13.1	12.5	1.00	2.2	35.09	1.3	1.1	10.7
EW	20.00	29.00	45	BUY	2014	2,073	1.84	0.9	10.9	-	-	19.01	1.1	-	10.2
EW	20.00	29.00	45	BUY	2015F	2,422	1.76	(4.2)	11.4	-	-	21.25	0.9	-	9.1
EW	20.00	29.00	45	BUY	2016F	3,099	2.07	17.4	9.7	-	-	23.31	0.9	-	9.3
MBT	92.95	105.00	13	BUY	2014	19,614	7.15	(10.9)	13.0	1.00	1.1	50.49	1.8	1.3	13.8
MBT	92.95	105.00	13	BUY	2015F	16,782	5.48	(23.4)	17.0	1.00	1.1	57.75	1.6	1.0	9.7
MBT	92.95	105.00	13	BUY	2016F	19,868	6.25	14.1	14.9	1.00	1.1	63.42	1.5	1.1	9.9
PBB	18.06	18.00	(0)	HOLD	2014	475	1.11	(52.7)	16.3	-	-	17.25	1.0	-	6.9
PBB	18.06	18.00	(0)	HOLD	2015F	555	1.29	16.8	14.0	-	-	17.86	1.0	-	7.4
PBB	18.06	18.00	(0)	HOLD	2016F	640	1.49	15.4	12.1	-	-	19.34	0.9	-	8.0
PNB	68.65	77.00	12	HOLD	2014	4,519	3.66	(22.5)	18.8	-	-	67.45	1.0	-	5.1
PNB	68.65	77.00	12	HOLD	2015F	4,761	3.81	4.2	18.0	-	-	71.95	1.0	-	4.7
PNB	68.65	77.00	12	HOLD	2016F	5,536	4.43	16.3	15.5	-	-	77.18	0.9	-	5.2
RCB	41.80	62.00	48	BUY	2014	3,969	3.11	(8.1)	13.4	1.00	1.1	37.47	1.8	0.7	9.1
RCB	41.80	62.00	48	BUY	2015F	4,670	3.34	7.2	12.5	1.00	1.2	42.61	1.0	0.7	8.7
RCB	41.80	62.00	48	BUY	2016F	6,025	4.30	29.0	9.7	1.00	1.1	46.32	0.9	0.8	9.7
SECB	164.50	200.00	22	BUY	2014	7,164	11.88	42.9	13.8	2.00	1.2	77.77	2.1	1.9	16.3
SECB	164.50	200.00	22	BUY	2015F	7,497	12.44	4.7	13.2	2.00	1.2	88.18	1.9	1.7	15.0
SECB	164.50	200.00	22	BUY	2016F	7,777	12.90	3.7	12.8	2.00	1.2	99.08	1.7	1.6	13.8
UBP	60.20	77.00	28	HOLD	2014	8,401	7.94	(6.9)	7.6	2.67	4.4	42.10	1.4	0.7	16.6
UBP	60.20	77.00	28	HOLD	2015F	8,030	7.59	(4.4)	7.9	2.67	4.4	47.59	1.3	0.7	13.6
UBP	60.20	77.00	28	HOLD	2016F	8,900	8.41	10.8	7.2	2.67	4.4	53.90	1.1	0.8	13.7

The Week Ahead

Companies with Annual Stockholders' Meetings:
- Solid Group, Inc.
- Discovery World Corporation
- Concrete Aggregates Corporation
- Global-EstateResorts, Inc.
- Lorenzo Shipping Corporation
- Anchor Land Holdings, Inc.

Summary

The telecoms sector saw a 2.6% YoY earnings growth, with GLO outperforming TEL.
GLO showed strong growth in core net income (25% YoY) and service revenues (13% YoY) due to early promotions and content partnerships.
TEL faced declining performance, but new strategies and management changes are expected to improve its position.
Valuations are fair, with limited downside and strong dividend yields providing support.
The PSEi rose by 1.22% on June 24, 2015, with a turnover of 6,190.85 PHPm.
The DOE introduced measures to manage power demand through the ILP program.
The Tampakan mining project is now fully under the Alcantara group, with significant reserves.