20140120-Maybank_KERPL-UMS_HOLDINGS__UMSH.SP_CREAM_OF_THE_DIVIDEND_CROP_11页_619kb

报告摘要

UMS Holdings (UMSH SP) Summary

Core Content Overview

UMS Holdings (UMSH SP) is a Singapore-based technology company with a significant presence in the semiconductor equipment manufacturing sector. The company's primary revenue stream comes from precision machining components and systems for semiconductor equipment, with 95% of its sales attributed to this business. The remaining 5% comes from contract manufacturing in the oil & gas industry. The company is known for its strong relationship with Applied Materials (AMAT), its largest customer, and has a long-term OEM contract to supply components for AMAT's Endura vapour deposition equipment.

Key Financial Metrics

Metric	FY08A	FY09A	FY10A	FY11A	FY12A
Sales (SGD m)	93.4	47.3	129.0	114.4	113.2
EBITDA (SGD m)	10.3	(2.6)	35.5	27.4	20.2
Core Net Profit (SGD m)	1.8	(24.3)	28.7	27.6	17.0
Core FD EPS (cts)	1.7	(2.9)	8.2	8.0	4.9
Net DPS (cts)	1.0	1.0	5.0	6.0	5.0
Net Dividend Yield (%)	1.7	1.7	8.5	10.2	8.5
ROAE (%)	0.0	nm	16.8	15.2	9.3
ROAA (%)	0.0	nm	13.7	13.1	8.1
EV/EBITDA (x)	na	nm	5.4	6.1	9.0
Net Debt/Equity (%)	net cash	net cash	net cash	net cash	net cash
P/BV (x)	1.1	1.3	1.1	1.1	1.1

Share Price and Performance

Share Price: SGD0.59
Target Price: Not available
Market Capitalization: SGD201.1M
Absolute Return (1Mth): 2.6%
Relative to Country (1Mth): -0.2%
12Mth Return: 33.0%

Dividend Highlights

Quarterly Dividend: 1 SGD cent per share since 2010
Final Dividend: 2 SGD cents per share
Special Dividend: 1 SGD cent per share in 2010 and 2011, suspended in 2012
Dividend Yield (2013): Over 8.5% if the final dividend of 2 cents is paid
Potential Special Dividend Yield (2013): Over 12.5% if the special dividend is reinstated

Business Overview

Primary Business: Semiconductor equipment manufacturing, with 95% of revenue from this segment
Major Customer: Applied Materials (AMAT), which accounts for 80% of sales
Contract Details: Five-year OEM contract with AMAT for Endura vapour deposition equipment, renewable for another five years
Production Shift: Moving more production to Penang to leverage tax benefits and access to cheaper labor

Industry Trends and Outlook

Semiconductor Growth: Expected to rebound in 2013-2014 due to increased demand for smart mobile devices
Capex Cycle: Expected to increase with the transition to 450mm silicon wafers
AMAT's Acquisition: AMAT acquired Tokyo Electron, the third-largest semiconductor equipment maker, potentially creating more opportunities for UMS
Forecasted Profit: SGD23.6m in 2013, with 9M13 showing a profit of SGD17.9m

SWOT Analysis

Strengths

Strong relationship with AMAT since the 1990s
Close proximity to AMAT's factory in Singapore
In-house suite of over 70 metal finishing processes

Opportunities

Rebound in semiconductor industry
Potential for increased capex due to 450mm wafer adoption
Opportunities from AMAT's acquisition of Tokyo Electron
Expansion into oil & gas and aerospace

Weaknesses

Heavy reliance on a single customer (AMAT)
Risk of AMAT developing a second source if costs rise

Threats

Risk of AMAT relocating operations
Potential competition from new products

Key Catalysts

Potential Return of Special Dividend: Expected in 2013, which could significantly boost yield
Industry Capex Recovery: Expected to drive growth in semiconductor equipment demand
AMAT's Market Position: Consolidation in the semiconductor equipment market could lead to more opportunities for UMS