2022-01-27-瑞士信贷集团-包装行业应在2022年实现_安全港_的卓越表现_154页_8mb

US Packaging Sector Summary

Core Content

This document outlines Credit Suisse's initiation of coverage for several packaging sector companies, emphasizing the potential for outperformance in 2022 due to a combination of secular growth, attractive valuations, and strong fundamentals. The report highlights the defensive nature of the packaging sector, which is expected to benefit from capital rotation and improved financial performance.

Main Points

1. Investment Thesis

• Secular Growth: The packaging sector is expected to deliver strong organic growth in 2022 due to increased demand, especially in beverage cans and sustainable packaging.
• Attractive Valuation: Packaging companies are undervalued compared to their earnings potential and have strong capital return profiles.
• Defensive Business Models: The sector is considered a safe haven due to its stable demand and pricing power.
• Multiple Expansion: Valuation multiples are expected to expand as the market shifts towards defensive sectors with strong growth prospects.

2. Company Ratings and Target Prices

• Ardagh Metal Packaging SA (AMBP): Outperform, $13 TP
• Sealed Air Corp. (SEE): Outperform, $80 TP
• O-I Glass (OI): Outperform, $18 TP
• Berry Global Group (BERY): Neutral, $78 TP

3. Key Drivers of Growth

• Beverage Can Demand: Strong secular growth is expected, with North America leading the import displacement and restocking demand.
• Sustainability Trends: Beverage cans and glass are viewed as more sustainable options, supporting long-term growth.
• Automation and ESG: Companies like SEE are leveraging automation and ESG initiatives to drive growth and improve margins.

4. Risks

• Execution Risk: Potential delays or inefficiencies in growth projects could limit capacity and earnings.
• Commodity Price Volatility: Inflationary pressures and rising resin costs could impact pricing power and margins.
• Currency Risk: Strong U.S. dollar could pressure foreign earnings.
• Regulatory and Tax Issues: Tax liabilities and regulatory changes pose long-term risks, especially for SEE.

Key Information

5. Valuation Metrics

• EV/EBITDA: AMBP is currently trading at 8.0x for 2023, with a target of 10.7x.
• FCF Yield: AMBP is expected to have a 17% FCF yield in 2024.
• ROIC: AMBP's ROIC is projected to increase significantly, with potential IRRs exceeding 20%.
• Earnings Growth: AMBP is expected to grow earnings at over 11% CAGR from 2020 to 2024.

6. Company-Specific Highlights

Ardagh Metal Packaging SA (AMBP)

• Growth Potential: AMBP has the highest growth forecast in the packaging sector.
• Capacity Expansion: Expected to add ~60% capacity by 2024, with ~75-80% of growth from brownfield expansions.
• EBITDA Margin: Projected to expand from 15.8% in 2020 to 19.6% by 2024.
• Key Risks: Execution of growth projects, potential can oversupply, and non-metal cost inflation.

Sealed Air Corp. (SEE)

• Automation: SEE is a leader in automation and has a strong FCF conversion rate.
• Sustainability: SEE is well positioned to benefit from the shift towards sustainable packaging.
• Capital Efficiency: SEE has a strong capital return model with ~50% EBITDA to FCF conversion.
• Key Risks: Inflationary pressures, regulatory changes, and potential R&D costs.

O-I Glass (OI)

• MAGMA Technology: The MAGMA production process is expected to significantly improve ROIC and earnings.
• Capacity and EBITDA: OI is projected to have strong EBITDA growth from 2023 to 2025.
• Valuation: OI is undervalued and could benefit from multiple expansion.
• Key Risks: Delay in MAGMA commercialization, operational disruptions, and energy price increases.

Berry Global Group (BERY)

• FCF Yield: BERY has an attractive 10% FCF yield in 2022.
• Growth Potential: Organic growth is expected to slow due to fading tailwinds and tough comparisons.
• Capital Return: BERY may become a more attractive investment in 2023 with potential for dividends and buybacks.
• Key Risks: Limited capital return potential, integration challenges, and FX exposure.

Conclusion

Credit Suisse believes that the packaging sector, particularly in beverage cans and glass, is poised for strong performance in 2022. The companies covered are expected to benefit from secular growth trends, improved financials, and multiple expansion. However, risks such as execution challenges, inflationary pressures, and regulatory issues remain. The report suggests that investors should consider these companies as potential outperformers due to their strong fundamentals and growth prospects.