2016年-数据局_德勤：2016年全球化工并购展望报告_22页_2mb

2016 Global Chemical Industry Mergers and Acquisitions Outlook Summary

Core Content

The 2016 Deloitte Global outlook for the chemical industry mergers and acquisitions (M&A) market highlights the ongoing trend of companies seeking to enhance growth and shareholder value through strategic focus and portfolio realignment. Despite a relatively flat deal volume in 2015 compared to 2014, the total value of M&A activity reached record levels, driven by large-scale transactions such as the proposed $73 billion Dow and DuPont merger. The report also explores the role of spin-offs, the impact of additive manufacturing, and the performance of M&A activity across key chemical segments and geographies.

Main Views

• M&A Momentum Continues: Although the number of global chemical deals remained relatively stable in 2015, the total deal value reached new highs, indicating sustained M&A activity.
• Focus on Core Businesses: Companies are increasingly pursuing M&A and spin-off strategies to consolidate their core competencies, enhance innovation, and improve competitiveness.
• Record Deals and Spin-Offs: The year 2015 saw a notable increase in the number of deals over $1 billion, with the Dow and DuPont merger being the largest. Spin-offs are also on the rise, with a combined revenue of about $25 billion in 2014 and 2015, showing their growing importance.
• Additive Manufacturing as a Growth Driver: The emergence of additive manufacturing is expected to create new opportunities for chemical companies, particularly in the production of specialty chemicals used in this sector.
• Segment-Specific Trends: Different chemical segments experienced varying levels of M&A activity, with agricultural chemicals and fertilizers showing significant growth through consolidation and strategic acquisitions.

Key Information

Global M&A Activity

• In 2015, global chemical M&A activity exceeded the previous six-year average by over 6%.
• The total deal value reached $145.8 billion, with 16 deals valued at over $1 billion.
• The Dow and DuPont merger is expected to result in three new companies, including a $19 billion agriculture chemicals company, a $51 billion material sciences company, and a $13 billion specialty products company.

M&A by Segment

• Commodities: Deal volume was relatively flat compared to 2014 but higher than 2012–2013 levels. Companies are focusing on efficiency and scale due to depressed pricing.
• Intermediates and Specialty Materials: A trend of gaining scale in core businesses continued, with significant deals such as Solvay’s $6.4 billion acquisition of Cytec and Platform Specialty Products’ $2.3 billion acquisition of Alent Plc.
• Fertilizers and Agricultural Chemicals: The segment faced a downturn due to lower crop prices, prompting cost-cutting and consolidation. The proposed Dow and DuPont merger is expected to create synergies in this area.
• Industrial Gases: Industrial gas companies are seeking growth through M&A due to lower industrial production growth rates. Air Liquide’s $13.4 billion acquisition of Airgas is a notable example.
• Diversified: The Dow and DuPont merger is a landmark transaction, expected to create substantial cost and growth synergies. However, the likelihood of another such mega deal in 2016 is low due to complexity and fewer significant players.

Geographical Trends

• United States: M&A activity saw a decline in volume but an increase in value due to large deals like the Dow-DuPont merger and Air Liquide's acquisition of Airgas. The U.S. is expected to remain a key market for M&A in 2016.
• Germany: M&A activity was focused on small and medium-sized transactions for portfolio optimization. Spin-offs are still limited, but the trend is expected to continue.
• United Kingdom: Strong cross-border activity was observed, with several notable acquisitions by international buyers and UK-based companies expanding globally.
• China: The second-largest M&A market globally, with 78 deals in 2015. Local buyers dominated the market, but the anticipated economic slowdown may lead to slightly lower valuations in 2016. Agricultural chemicals and coatings are top sectors to watch.
• Japan: Consolidation in commodity chemicals is expected to drive M&A activity, with a shift away from uncompetitive petroleum-based products and toward more profitable segments.

Outlook for 2016

• The chemical industry is expected to continue its focus-driven M&A strategy, with an emphasis on core businesses and end markets.
• The impact of low oil prices is likely to be accepted as the "new normal," reducing the distraction for M&A activity.
• Additive manufacturing may open new avenues for collaboration and acquisitions, particularly in the specialty chemicals sector.
• Spin-offs are expected to continue, especially in the wake of the Dow and DuPont merger, which may result in two major spin-offs in the coming years.
• The U.S. and China will likely remain key markets for M&A, while other regions such as Germany and the UK will also see continued activity.

Summary

The 2016 outlook for the chemical industry M&A market emphasizes a strategic shift toward focus and efficiency. Companies are leveraging M&A and spin-off strategies to enhance competitiveness, drive innovation, and improve shareholder value. The impact of global economic trends, such as lower oil prices and reduced commodity demand, is shaping the landscape, with the U.S. and China leading the way. The proposed Dow and DuPont merger is a pivotal event, likely setting a new benchmark for M&A activity in the sector.