2025-05-22-Jefferies-每周天然气库存增加符合预期_49页_942kb

Energy Equity Research Summary - May 22, 2025

Natural Gas Inventory Build

• L48 Total Inventory: Increased by 120 bcf week-over-week (WoW) compared to the Bloomberg median estimate of ~119 bcf (current level: 2,375 bcf).
• Total Inventory YoY: Down ~13% compared to the same period in 2024.

Regional Inventory Builds

• East Region: +36 bcf WoW (current: 432 bcf); ~15% below year-ago level.
• Midwest Region: +32 bcf WoW (current: 512 bcf); ~19% below year-ago.
• Mountain Region: +7 bcf WoW (current: 192 bcf); ~5% below year-ago.
• Pacific Region: +7 bcf WoW (current: 244 bcf); ~6% below year-ago.
• South Central Region: +39 bcf WoW (current: 996 bcf); ~10% below year-ago.

Natural Gas Prices

• Henry Hub: $3.19 (QTD avg), down ~22% year-over-year (YoY).
• Most hubs: Prices declined this week, including Houston Ship Channel (-$3.54 YoY) and AECO ($1.49, +6.1% WoW).
• Exception: AECO price increased (+$0.08 WoW), making it the largest price increase this week.

Forward Curves & Markets

• The market remained backwardated for most regions in the US, including Henry Hub (-70%+ discount to front month).
• LNG net flows were slight net exports driven by the US and Canada, with month-to-month disregard for physical storage details.

High-Level Conclusions

• Overall natural gas inventories are building as per market expectations— especially in contrast to prior oversupply— though the growth remains lower than during 2022.
• Many regional inventories are still down year-over-year, contributing to near-term volatility.
• Henry Hub prices settled below $3.20, signaling a transition to unused supply after winter demand.