2025-06-11-Jefferies-每周天然气库存增加符合预期_49页_928kb
报告摘要
Weekly Natural Gas Inventory Build In-Line With Expectations
核心内容
本周，美国L48地区天然气库存增加了109十亿立方英尺（bcf），达到2,707bcf，基本符合彭博社的中位数预期（108bcf）。总体库存水平较去年同期下降约9%。
区域库存变化
- 东区：库存增加33bcf，达到531bcf，较去年同期下降约12%。
- 中西部：库存增加29bcf，达到608bcf，较去年同期下降约15%。
- 落基山脉：库存增加5bcf，达到210bcf，较去年同期下降约6%。
- 太平洋：库存增加5bcf，达到266bcf，较去年同期下降约4%。
- 南部中央：库存增加36bcf，达到1,091bcf，较去年同期下降约6%。
与五年平均对比
- 东区：库存较五年平均（2020-2024）高出2%。
- 中西部：库存较五年平均低1%。
- 落基山脉：库存较五年平均高30%。
- 太平洋：库存较五年平均高12%。
- 南部中央：库存较五年平均高3%。
天然气价格分析
以下为各主要天然气枢纽的价格及变化情况（单位：美元/百万英热单位，$MMBtu）：
| 天然气枢纽 | 6/11/2025 | QTD平均 | 1Q25平均 | 季度环比变化 | 2Q24平均 | 年度同比变化 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Hub | $2.73 | $3.18 | $4.22 | -24.7% | $2.07 | +54.1% |
| Houston Ship Channel | $2.58 | $2.87 | $3.54 | -19.2% | $1.84 | +56.0% |
| Waha | $1.96 | $1.02 | $1.85 | -45.0% | -$0.54 | -289.5% |
| AECO | $1.01 | $1.41 | $1.49 | -5.4% | $0.87 | +62.6% |
| ANR Southeast | $2.70 | $3.12 | $4.22 | -26.1% | $2.00 | +55.7% |
| Chicago City Gate | $2.58 | $2.87 | $3.98 | -27.9% | $1.68 | +70.4% |
| City Gate (Michigan) | $2.55 | $2.93 | $3.81 | -22.9% | $1.69 | +73.1% |
| Oneok OGT | $2.61 | $2.75 | $3.75 | -26.7% | $1.56 | +76.2% |
| Leidy Hub | $1.93 | $2.50 | $3.91 | -36.0% | $1.48 | +69.2% |
| Dominion North | $1.83 | $2.33 | $3.81 | -38.9% | $1.47 | +58.3% |
| Dominion South | $1.83 | $2.33 | $3.75 | -38.0% | $1.48 | +57.7% |
| Tetco Zone M2 Receipts | $1.96 | $2.36 | $3.82 | -38.1% | $1.46 | +62.4% |
| Tetco M2 | $1.95 | $2.36 | $3.82 | -38.0% | $1.49 | +58.2% |
| Tetco M3 | $2.10 | $2.48 | $6.18 | -59.9% | $1.57 | +58.1% |
| Marcellus (Zone 4) | $1.89 | $2.24 | $3.79 | -40.9% | $1.45 | +54.4% |
| Transco Zone 6 NY | $2.16 | $2.58 | $8.86 | -70.9% | $1.62 | +59.4% |
| Zone 6 Non-NY | $2.68 | $2.82 | $7.36 | -61.7% | $1.89 | +48.9% |
| Opal | $2.53 | $2.16 | $3.40 | -36.5% | $1.43 | +50.8% |
| CIG Mainline | $2.47 | $2.12 | $3.40 | -37.6% | $1.34 | +58.4% |
| PG&E City Gate | $3.00 | $2.86 | $3.74 | -23.5% | $2.29 | -242.9% |
| Socal City Gate | $3.49 | $3.01 | $4.10 | -26.6% | $1.79 | +68.5% |
| Dawn Ontario | $2.53 | $2.93 | $3.88 | -24.5% | $1.69 | +73.1% |
| Empress Alberta | $1.28 | $1.57 | $1.68 | -6.2% | $0.87 | +81.7% |
| Katy Hub, Tx | $2.57 | $2.87 | $3.52 | -18.7% | $1.77 | +62.2% |
| Transco Station 85 | $4.09 | $3.23 | $4.48 | -27.9% | $2.52 | +28.1% |
| Tetco West LA | $2.70 | $3.08 | $4.20 | -26.8% | $1.95 | +57.6% |
| Tennessee 500 Leg | $4.04 | $3.22 | $4.36 | -26.2% | $2.33 | +38.0% |
| Transco Station 65 | $2.97 | $3.20 | $4.31 | -25.6% | $2.36 | +35.9% |
天然气价差分析
以下是主要天然气枢纽与Henry Hub的价差情况（单位：美元/百万英热单位，$MMBtu）：
| 天然气枢纽 | 6/11/2025 | QTD平均 | 1Q25平均 | 季度环比变化 | 2Q24平均 | 年度同比变化 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Ship Channel - HH | -$0.15 | -$0.32 | -$0.68 | +53.3% | -$0.23 | -38.7% |
| Waha - HH | -$0.77 | -$2.17 | -$2.38 | +8.8% | -$2.60 | -16.8% |
| AECO - HH | -$1.72 | -$1.77 | -$2.74 | +35.2% | -$1.20 | -47.9% |
| ANR Southeast - HH | -$0.03 | -$0.06 | $0.00 | NM | -$0.06 | -3.5% |
| Chicago City Gate - HH | -$0.15 | -$0.32 | -$0.25 | -28.1% | -$0.38 | +17.6% |
| City Gate (Michigan) - HH | -$0.18 | -$0.25 | -$0.42 | +40.3% | -$0.37 | +32.6% |
| Oneok OGT - HH | -$0.12 | -$0.43 | -$0.47 | +8.1% | -$0.50 | +14.4% |
| Leidy Hub - HH | -$0.80 | -$0.68 | -$0.31 | -117.2% | -$0.59 | -16.0% |
| Dominion North - HH | -$0.90 | -$0.85 | -$0.42 | -105.6% | -$0.59 | -43.8% |
| Dominion South - HH | -$0.90 | -$0.86 | -$0.47 | -81.4% | -$0.59 | -45.2% |
| Tetco Zone M2 Receipts - HH | -$0.77 | -$0.82 | -$0.41 | -101.5% | -$0.61 | -34.4% |
| Tetco (Zone M2) - HH | -$0.78 | -$0.82 | -$0.41 | -100.3% | -$0.57 | -53.5% |
| Tetco (Zone M3) - HH | -$0.63 | -$0.71 | $1.96 | -136.0% | -$0.50 | -41.6% |
| Marcellus (Zone 4) - HH | -$0.84 | -$0.94 | -$0.43 | -117.6% | -$0.61 | -53.5% |
| Zone 6 NY - HH | -$0.57 | -$0.61 | $4.63 | -113.1% | -$0.45 | -35.1% |
| Zone 6 Non-NY - HH | -$0.05 | -$0.36 | $3.13 | -111.6% | -$0.17 | -110.9% |
| Opal - HH | -$0.20 | -$1.02 | -$0.82 | -24.4% | -$0.63 | -61.6% |
| CIG Mainline - HH | -$0.26 | -$1.06 | -$0.82 | -28.8% | -$0.73 | -46.2% |
| PG&E City Gate - HH | $0.27 | -$0.32 | -$0.48 | +33.9% | $0.22 | -242.9% |
| Socal City Gate - HH | $0.76 | -$0.17 | -$0.12 | -38.8% | -$0.28 | +38.2% |
| Dawn Ontario - HH | -$0.20 | -$0.25 | -$0.35 | +26.6% | -$0.37 | +32.0% |
| Empress Alberta - HH | -$1.45 | -$1.61 | -$2.55 | +36.8% | -$1.20 | -34.2% |
| Katy Hub, Tx - HH | -$0.16 | -$0.32 | -$0.70 | +54.6% | -$0.30 | -6.3% |
| Transco Station 85 - HH | $1.36 | $0.05 | $0.26 | -81.0% | $0.46 | -89.3% |
| Tetco West LA - HH | -$0.03 | -$0.11 | -$0.02 | -337.3% | -$0.11 | +6.1% |
| Tennessee 500 Leg - HH | $1.31 | $0.03 | $0.13 | -74.9% | $0.26 | -87.5% |
| Transco Station 65 - HH | $0.24 | $0.02 | $0.08 | -75.0% | $0.29 | -92.9% |
前瞻性曲线与价差
- Henry Hub Forward Curves：图表显示Henry Hub的远期曲线。
- Backwardation vs Contango：图表展示了天然气市场的远期曲线与现货价格的关系。
总结
- 本周L48天然气库存增长符合预期，但整体仍低于去年同期。
- 不同地区库存变化不一，东区和中西部库存增长，而落基山脉和太平洋库存略有下降。
- 天然气价格整体下降，部分枢纽价格跌幅显著，如Waha和Tetco M3。
- 多数枢纽与Henry Hub的价差扩大，反映市场供需变化。
- 前瞻性曲线和价差分析表明市场存在一定程度的backwardation（现货价格高于远期价格）。
数据来源
- EIA
- Bloomberg
- Jefferies
展开完整摘要
试读结束，高清完整版pdf/doc/ppt,请点下载
