2025-05-15-Jefferies-每周天然气库存增加符合预期_49页_932kb

Natural Gas Inventory and Price Analysis: May 15, 2025

L48 Inventory

• Overall Change: EIA reported a +110 billion cubic feet week-over-week inventory build, aligning with Bloomberg's median estimate. Total storage stands at 2,255 bcf, 15% below year-ago levels.
• Regional Breakdown:
  • East: +34 bcf (to 396 bcf, YoY -18%).
  • Midwest: +26 bcf (to 480 bcf, YoY -22%).
  • Mountain/Pacific: Small builds (+5/5 bcf), storage 6% below YoY.
  • South Central: +40 bcf (to 957 bcf, YoY -13%).
  • Salt/Non-Salt: YoY -2%/-17% vs. 3%/-5% 5-year average.

Natural Gas Prices

• Henry Hub: Spot price at $3.30/MMBtu (QTD avg: $3.32, YoY -21%).
• Key Changes:
  • Houston Ship Channel: YoY -$0.51 (-17%).
  • Waha Central: YoY -$0.54 (-337%).
  • AECO: YoY +$0.38 (+8.3%, contango).
  • Marcellus Zone 4: Spot -$0.04 YoY (+4% YoY change vs spread).

Forward Curves

• Henry Hub forward curves show backwardation across maturities, signaling spot- driven pricing or tight supply/demand.
• Significant QoQ drops (e.g., Transco Zone 6 NY YoY -$0.51).

Forward Strategy

• Curves display tight backwardation in key hubs, reflecting expected tight inventories and higher near-term prices.

Markets

• LNG Net Flows: Significant deviation from previous year, with hub activity emphasizing demand-driven price pressure.

Recommendations

• The report suggests holding or slightly buying based on inventory fill rate. Monitor regional tightness for trading opportunities.