20140403-光大证券-Strategy_Report_for_2Q14_31页_637kb

报告摘要

2014 Hong Kong Stock Market Strategy Report Summary

Core Content

This document outlines the strategy and outlook for the Hong Kong stock market in the second quarter of 2014, focusing on the performance of the Hang Seng Index (HSI) and the broader Chinese economy. It provides an analysis of market movements, sector performance, and key macroeconomic indicators, along with a stock portfolio recommendation.

Main Points

Market Performance: The Hong Kong stock market experienced narrow trading in 1Q14 due to weak mainland economic data, geopolitical tensions (Ukraine crisis), and the impact of the NPC and CPPCC sessions. The HSI hit a record low of 21,200 in early February but rebounded slightly to near 23,000 in March before retreating to 21,500 at the end of the quarter.
Sector Outperformance: Defensive sectors such as new energy, medicine, technology, and gambling outperformed the HSI, while cyclical sectors like banking, property, and coal underperformed.
Economic Outlook: China's economic growth lacked momentum, with weak PMI data, subdued industrial production, and declining investment. The government is expected to introduce stabilization policies when growth approaches the "lower bound."
US QE Tapering: The US's tapering of quantitative easing (QE) cast uncertainty on global markets, including Hong Kong. The Fed's potential rate hikes added pressure, though the US economy showed signs of improvement.
Global Impact: The Ukraine crisis led to global market volatility, with investors moving away from risk assets and into safe-haven investments like oil and gold. This affected the HSI, contributing to its decline.
Property Market: The mainland real estate market faced challenges due to economic slowdown and credit constraints, but structural factors like urbanization and demand for better housing suggest long-term growth potential.
HSI Target: The reasonable target for HSI in 2014 is set at 24,000, based on valuations relative to earnings, with the expectation that the government will intervene to prevent a "hard landing."

Key Information

HSI Valuation: At 24,000 points, the HSI is valued at 11.0x 2014E earnings and 10.7x 2015E earnings, slightly below the 5-year average of 12.6x.
Preferred Sectors: Environmental protection, automobile, and Chinese property are highlighted as favorable sectors. The government is expected to increase investment in environmental protection, and the auto sector benefits from falling raw material prices and support for new energy vehicles.
Property Demand: China's property demand is far from saturation due to urbanization and the need for housing upgrades. The high down payment ratio suggests limited speculative demand.
Land Supply Control: The government's monopoly over urban land supply is a key factor driving up property prices. Relaxation of property regulation is expected to support the sector in the long term.
Economic Data: Key indicators like GDP growth, CPI, PPI, and industrial output showed signs of slowing growth, with some data revised downward. The trade surplus declined, and the RMB/USD exchange rate remained stable.

Risk Factors

Downside Risks: Unstable economic growth, corporate defaults, weak real economy in Europe and the US, and a rapid tapering of QE by the US central bank.
Upside Risks: The possibility of government intervention to stabilize growth, improved global economic conditions, and a recovery in domestic consumption.