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Summary of Working Paper Series No 2957

Title: Inflation Preferences

Authors: Hassan Afrouzi, Alexander M. Dietrich, Kristian Ove R. Myrseth, Romanos Priftis, Raphael S. Schoenle

Publication Date: Undisclosed

Background

• Modern central banks operate under a mandate of price stability, targeting low and stable inflation (e.g., the Federal Reserve's 2% target in the US).
• However, consumer preferences for inflation often fall substantially below this target.

Methods

1. Survey Design:
   • A randomized control trial (RCT) embedded in a national survey of US residents.
   • Respondents were asked about their preferred long-term inflation rate, demographic and socioeconomic factors, and economic reasoning.
   • Five treatments were used to test the effect of specific economic narratives (e.g., inflation eroding wages, inflation increasing monetary opportunity costs).

Results

• Consumer Preferences:

  • US consumers prefer an average inflation rate of 0.20% (median 0%), significantly lower than the Fed's 2% target.

• Determinants of Preferences:

  • Demographics: Older age, higher education, and homeownership correlate with lower inflation preferences.
  • Socioeconomic Factors: Debtors prefer higher inflation, savers prefer lower. Labor income dominance reduces preference for inflation.
  • Economic Narratives: Two narratives (inflation eroding wages/real value of assets) significantly reduced preferences; others had weaker or no effect.

• RCT Findings:

  • Consumers’ inflation preferences are sensitive to economic narratives.
  • Treatment effects varied by age, gender, and education level (e.g., older participants and those without economic training were more influenced).

Policy Implications

• Communication Tools: Central banks can influence public preferences through targeted communication of economic narratives.
• Alignment Discrepancy: Large gaps exist between consumer preferences and policy targets, warranting further research to bridge this discrepancy.

Key Conclusions

• Primary Result: Consumers prefer significantly lower inflation than policy targets, with heterogeneity based on demographics and socioeconomic factors.
• Secondary Findings: Economic narratives significantly shape inflation preferences, providing a tool for central banks to align public expectations with policy goals.

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