2025-06-29-国际清算银行-通货膨胀激增后的家庭看法和预期_调查证据（英）_8页_296kb

BIS Bulletin Summary: Household Perceptions and Expectations in the Wake of the Inflation Surge

Core Content

This BIS Bulletin explores how households across 29 advanced and emerging market economies perceive and expect inflation, particularly in the aftermath of the post-pandemic inflation surge. It emphasizes the role of central bank communication in shaping these perceptions and the long-term impact of inflation experiences on household expectations.

Key Takeaways

• Elevated Inflation Expectations: Despite inflation rates returning to central bank targets, household inflation expectations remain high, averaging around 8% for the next 12 months, compared to the current 2.4% average.
• Post-Pandemic Price Increases: Households perceive much larger price increases post-pandemic than in earlier periods, with a median belief of 9% increase from 2015–19 and 18% from 2020–24.
• Main Drivers of Inflation: Households attribute the inflation surge primarily to rising commodity prices and pandemic-related shortages, rather than to central bank policies.
• Central Bank Awareness and Trust: Awareness of the central bank and its price stability mandate is associated with lower inflation expectations. However, a significant portion of the population lacks basic understanding of the central bank's role.
• Communication Channels: TV and radio are the most common sources of information about the central bank, but social media is gaining importance as a key channel for reaching households.
• Policy Implications: Central banks should enhance communication efforts to improve public understanding of their goals and achievements, especially in reducing inflation, and adapt to new media consumption patterns.

Main Points

Household Sentiment and Price Level Dynamics

• Household sentiment is closely linked to the evolution of price levels over time.
• The correlation between inflation and sentiment is stronger at higher inflation levels.
• Long-term price increases, particularly since the start of the inflation surge, continue to influence sentiment negatively, even when inflation is close to targets.

Household Inflation Perceptions and Expectations

• Households expect inflation to remain elevated, with an average of 8% over the next 12 months.
• The perceived price level changes over the past five years are a strong determinant of current inflation expectations.
• A 1% increase in perceived price levels over 2020–24 is associated with a 0.12 percentage point increase in inflation expectations.
• The pre-pandemic price level change also positively influences expectations, though to a lesser extent.

Central Bank Knowledge and Communication

• Households that are aware of the central bank and its price stability objective have significantly lower inflation expectations.
• Only about 60% of households correctly identify the central bank as the national institution.
• Awareness of the central bank's price stability goal is even lower, with only 49% of households believing it is a primary objective.
• Social media is becoming a more influential source of information about central banks and monetary policy than traditional media like newspapers.

Policy Conclusions

• Central banks must address the challenge of aligning public inflation expectations with their targets.
• Enhancing public understanding of central banks and their role in maintaining price stability is crucial for anchoring inflation expectations.
• Communication strategies should be audience-centric and tailored to the evolving media landscape, including social media.
• Future inflation expectations are influenced by past price experiences, suggesting that the effects of the post-pandemic inflation surge may persist.

Key Information

• Survey Period: March–April 2025.
• Sample Size: Approximately 1,000 respondents per economy.
• Economies Covered: 29 advanced and emerging market economies.
• Key Variables Analyzed: Inflation expectations, perceived price changes, central bank awareness, and knowledge of price stability mandate.
• Data Sources: IPSOS survey data, national macroeconomic data, and BIS calculations.

Conclusion

The Bulletin underscores the importance of central bank communication in shaping household perceptions and expectations of inflation. It highlights that while central banks have succeeded in bringing inflation back to target, households still perceive it as elevated due to prolonged price increases. Central banks must therefore focus on improving public understanding of their role and objectives, especially through modern communication channels like social media, to effectively manage inflation expectations and maintain public trust.