麦肯锡-2020年假日购物季报告（英文）-2020.11-16页_2mb

2020 Holiday Shopping Season Summary

Core Content

The 2020 holiday shopping season is marked by significant changes driven by the ongoing impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. With many countries implementing lockdowns and restrictions, consumer behaviors have shifted dramatically, leading to a more digital and omnichannel shopping experience.

Main Trends

1. Deal Hunting Dominates

• Despite economic challenges and income reductions, consumers are highly motivated to shop during major deal days such as Black Friday, Cyber Monday, Singles Day, and Amazon Prime Day.
• 82% of shoppers in the US, UK, Germany, and France plan to spend the same or more on these events than last year.
• In China, 75% of consumers intend to maintain or increase holiday spending.
• 44% of consumers reported a slight or significant income reduction this year, yet they still show enthusiasm for holiday deals.

2. Shift to Digital and Omnichannel Shopping

• 37% of shoppers across the five countries intend to spend more online this year than last year.
• The US, UK, and China are leading in digital adoption, while France and Germany are progressing more slowly.
• 10% of shoppers plan to increase their in-store spending, highlighting a continued preference for online shopping.
• Click-and-collect is becoming increasingly popular, especially as consumers seek convenience and safety.

3. Loyalty Challenges

• Over 60% of global consumers have tried new shopping behaviors since the start of the pandemic.
• 40% have shopped at new retailers, and 33% have experimented with different brands.
• 12% of consumers intend to stick with the same retailers as last year.
• Retailers can win back loyalty by offering personalized experiences, leveraging social media, and providing clear information on product availability and shipping timelines.

4. Health and Safety Concerns

• 45% of shoppers (excluding China) plan to browse in stores, a sharp decline from 65% in 2019.
• Health and safety measures are now top priorities for in-store shopping, including masks, barriers, cleaning supplies, and physical distancing.
• In China, health checks upon entry are most valued, while in the US and France, one-way aisles and special hours for vulnerable groups are important.

5. Black Friday: Evolving and Expanding

• Black Friday is being stretched into multiple days in November and is being promoted more heavily online.
• 60% of shoppers in the UK, France, and Germany plan to participate in Black Friday, up from 50% last year.
• In the US, 30% of consumers plan to shop somewhere different to increase safety.
• Black Friday is not as popular in China as Singles Day, which saw 75% of shoppers intend to participate, compared to 50% for Black Friday.

6. Early Shopping Season

• Many shoppers have started their holiday shopping earlier to avoid supply and delivery issues.
• 45% of respondents said they intend to begin shopping in October or earlier.
• 26 billion USD in global retail spending is expected to shift from Cyber Week in November to October.
• Retailers like Amazon, Target, and Walmart are adjusting their schedules and offering early deals to capitalize on this trend.

Key Insights

• Consumer confidence in holiday spending remains high despite economic uncertainty, particularly in countries that have recovered from the pandemic.
• Digital transformation is accelerating, with more consumers using online platforms, mobile apps, and omnichannel options.
• Safety and convenience are the primary motivators for consumer behavior this year.
• Personalization and social media engagement are critical in driving purchases and building customer loyalty.
• Supply chain constraints are leading to earlier shipping cutoffs, with some retailers setting deadlines as early as December 15.

Summary of Participation Rates

Conclusion

The 2020 holiday shopping season is a pivotal moment for retailers, as they navigate the challenges of the pandemic and adapt to new consumer behaviors. The shift toward digital and omnichannel shopping, combined with a focus on safety and convenience, presents both obstacles and opportunities for businesses. Retailers that can provide a seamless, personalized, and secure shopping experience are likely to thrive in this evolving landscape.