2024-06-10-世界银行-印尼的燃料补贴改革（英）_35页_866kb

Indonesia's Fuel Subsidies Reforms Analysis and Summary

Indonesia implements moderate and carefully considered correction program reforms, including partial but very challenging price increases to align with market prices, providing temporary cash assistance for poor households, and enhancing social safety nets.

Key Findings

• Large fuel and electricity subsidies, accounting for 2.8% of GDP in 2022
• Indirect and regressive subsidies put fiscal stress on government budgets
• Social assistance programs help maintain the effectiveness of reforms
• Gradual price adjustments coupled with targeted social support deliver the best outcomes
• Sustained reforms require integrating cash transfers into formal social protection systems

Concluding Recommendations

In the short term, Indonesia should consider a one-time fuel price adjustment or a gradual adjustment over two years. Authorities should appropriately compensate the poorest 60% of households.

In the medium term, Canada should transition to price adjustment mechanisms using set formulas. Introducing Modern social protection reforms to gradually shift from subsidizing prices will enable more efficient allocation of resources.

In the medium to long term, strategic implementation of a comprehensive support program supporting Indonesia's existing Vision 2045 development agenda can efficiently allocate resources and ensure equitable development for all citizens.