20250107-招银国际-Jan_2025_NEV_sales_to_fall_MoM_despite_solid_Dec_leading_indicators_4页_832kb

Summary

This report analyzes the performance and prospects of China's Auto Sector, focusing on New Energy Vehicle (NEV) sales for January 2025. Despite a solid trend in December 2024's leading indicators, including increased leads, customer flow, and new orders, the NEV retail sales volume is expected to decline by 30%-40% month-over-month in January 2025. This is attributed to the expiration of government trade-in subsidies, despite some local governments extending subsidies and NEV manufacturers offering higher incentives.

Key metrics for the six brands—Tesla, NIO, Li Auto, Xpeng, BYD, and GAC Aion—were analyzed across leads, conversion ratios, customer flow, and new orders. Tesla and BYD maintained strong performance, with increases in leads and customer flow. BYD had the highest conversion ratio at 16%, while Li Auto saw its lowest performance. Xpeng showed improvement due to product launches.

Overall new orders increased by 4% month-over-month in December, but the report suggests this may not indicate higher January 2025 sales volumes as orders were largely fulfilled in December, following sales records.

The analysis also covers stock ratings from CMB International Global Markets for companies such as Li Auto, NIO, Xpeng, BYD, and others. Ratings range from BUY to SELL, based on the potential returns or risks over the next 12 months.

The report includes important disclosures regarding analyst certification, conflicts of interest, and limitations of the research. It is important to read these to understand the basis of the analysis and potential risks.

From CMBIGM Research

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