20240105-招银国际-China_Auto_Sector__2023_ended_with_rising_NEV_leading_indicators_4页_600kb

报告摘要

NEV Sales Growth in China
- China's New Energy Vehicle (NEV) retail sales for 2023 are expected to grow 39% YoY, reaching approximately 7.29 million units (market share: 34%). Monthly growth slowed in December due to internal combustion engine (ICE) push from traditional automakers at year-end.
Leading Indicators & Brand Performance (December 2023):
- All six brands (Tesla, NIO, Li Auto, Xpeng, BYD, Aion) saw positive month-on-month (MoM) growth in key metrics:
  - Number of leads rose across brands; NIO leads per store increased by 6% MoM (strongest increase), BYD by 4% MoM, Tesla by 3% MoM, and Li Auto, Xpeng, Aion by 1-2% MoM.
  - Customer flow per store increased for most brands (Li Auto: +4% MoM, Tesla/Customer flow: +3% MoM); Xpeng saw a minor decline (-3% MoM).
  - Conversion ratios for store visits to new orders improved, with BYD leading at 12% and NIO lagging at 7%.
- New Orders: Notable 14.1% MoM increase in Li Auto’s new orders per store, surpassing its 50,000-unit delivery level. Tesla, NIO, and BYD also saw strong MoM growth (14%, 11%, 5% respectively), while Xpeng experienced minimal change due to strategy shifts.
Sales Outlook: The improvement in December suggests robust NEV sales expected before the 2024 Chinese New Year, despite muted end-of-year performance.

Stocks rated BUY: Li Auto (US/HK), NIO (US/HK), Geely (HK), GWM (HK/CH), BYD (HK/CH), GAC (HK/CH), Meidong (HK), Yongda (HK), EVA (HK)
Stocks rated HOLD: Xpeng (US/HK)

The report emphasizes compliance with legal requirements, independence of analysis, and potential conflicts of interest.
Notes the reports are not investment advice; reliance on the information is at the recipient’s risk.

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