2014年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Taxing_Fossil_Fuels_under_Speculative_Storage_36页_992kb

Summary of "Taxing Fossil Fuels under Speculative Storage"

Core Content

This paper explores the short-run macroeconomic effects of environmental taxes on fossil fuel usage within a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model that incorporates speculative storage. The authors examine how the presence of forward-looking speculators, who store fossil fuels based on rational expectations of future prices, influences the effectiveness of tax policies and their associated macroeconomic costs.

Main Points

• Speculative Storage Mechanism: Speculative storage introduces a dynamic link between fossil fuel inventories, price expectations, and spot prices. It allows for the analysis of how storage behavior can amplify or dampen the effects of environmental taxes on macroeconomic variables.

• Model Structure:

  • The model includes households, firms producing core goods, firms producing renewable and fossil fuel, a government, a monetary authority, and fossil fuel storers.
  • Households maximize utility based on consumption and labor, and are subject to nominal rigidities and habit formation.
  • Core goods are produced by monopolistically competitive firms, which use both capital and labor, and the production process involves renewable and fossil fuel as inputs.
  • Fossil fuel is partly endogenous, with OPEC supply being exogenous and non-OPEC supply determined internally.
  • Renewable energy is also endogenously produced and used by households and firms.

• Policy Instruments:

  • Environmental taxes are imposed on either fossil fuel consumption or production.
  • Subsidies for renewable energy usage are considered as an alternative fiscal policy.

• Monetary Policy Interaction:

  • The paper investigates how monetary policy should respond to environmental tax shocks, considering the role of speculative storage.
  • It shows that the effectiveness of environmental taxes is enhanced by speculative storage, but this also leads to higher inflation and interest rates, and lower output.
  • The monetary policy rule is adjusted to minimize macroeconomic volatility by responding to CPI inflation rather than output or core inflation when storage is present.

• Key Findings:

  • Speculative storage significantly affects the effectiveness of environmental taxes by altering the supply and demand dynamics in the fossil fuel market.
  • Ignoring storage in the model leads to an underestimation of the impact of fossil fuel taxes on consumption.
  • The inclusion of storage in the model improves the fit with empirical data and highlights the importance of dynamic general equilibrium effects in policy design.
  • Fiscal policy can be more effective when tax revenues are used to subsidize renewable energy, thereby promoting a shift from fossil fuels to renewables.

Key Information

• Model Features:

  • Incorporates nominal rigidities and a multi-good CES framework.
  • Includes both fossil fuel and renewable energy as storable and non-storable resources.
  • Accounts for the role of storage in shaping the response of macroeconomic variables to tax shocks.

• Fiscal Policy Options:

  • Lump-sum transfers: Tax revenues are distributed to households.
  • Subsidies to renewable energy: Tax revenues are used to subsidize renewable energy usage, which encourages substitution away from fossil fuels.

• Monetary Policy Rule:

  • A Taylor-type rule is used, with parameters that adjust based on the presence of speculative storage.
  • The central bank should focus on CPI inflation rather than output or core inflation when storage is considered, to reduce macroeconomic volatility.

• Empirical Motivation:

  • The paper is motivated by the increasing role of speculative storage in the US oil market, where ending stocks of crude oil have increased significantly.
  • It builds on previous studies (e.g., Wright and Williams, Deaton and Laroque, Kilian and Murphy) that highlight the importance of storage in energy markets.

• Policy Implications:

  • Environmental taxes are more effective when speculative storage is considered, as it reduces fossil fuel supply and raises prices.
  • However, this effectiveness comes at a macroeconomic cost, including higher inflation and interest rates, and lower output.
  • Policymakers should design monetary policy to mitigate these costs, particularly by targeting CPI inflation when storage is present.

Structure of the Paper

• Section 1: Introduction outlines the motivation, objectives, and main contributions of the paper.
• Section 2: Details the model, including:
  • Households and their utility maximization.
  • Firms producing core goods, renewable energy, and fossil fuel.
  • Monetary and fiscal policy rules.
  • Equilibrium conditions in the goods and energy markets, with a focus on storage behavior.
• Section 3: Presents the results, including:
  • Calibration of the model.
  • Impulse responses to tax shocks on consumption, production, and both.
  • Policy analysis under different fiscal scenarios.
• Section 4: Concluding remarks summarize the key findings and policy implications.

Conclusion

The paper emphasizes that speculative storage plays a crucial role in determining the effectiveness and macroeconomic impact of environmental taxes on fossil fuels. It highlights the importance of incorporating storage behavior into DSGE models for a more accurate assessment of policy outcomes and suggests that monetary policy should be adjusted accordingly to limit the adverse effects of these taxes on inflation and output.