2016年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Tax_Policy_Leverage_and_Macroeconomic_Stability_77页_2mb

TAX POLICY, LEVERAGE AND MACROECONOMIC STABILITY Summary

Core Content

This document explores the relationship between tax policy, private leverage, and macroeconomic stability. It highlights how tax distortions, particularly 'debt bias', can exacerbate financial vulnerabilities and instability, especially in the context of high levels of private debt in both advanced economies (AEs) and emerging market economies (EMEs). The report emphasizes the importance of addressing these distortions through tax reform and presents evidence on the effectiveness of various tax instruments in mitigating debt bias and stabilizing house prices.

Main Points

1. Risks of Excessive Private Leverage

• High levels of private debt are a significant macroeconomic stability concern, as they can contribute to financial crises.
• In AEs, non-financial corporate debt has reached 90% of GDP on average, while in EMEs, it has risen sharply, notably in Brazil and China.
• Household debt has declined in AEs but increased rapidly in EMEs, posing risks to economic stability.

2. Tax Distortions and Debt Bias

• Debt bias refers to the tax advantage of debt over equity, which encourages firms and households to take on more debt than they would otherwise.
• Corporate tax systems generally allow interest deductions but not equity returns, creating a bias toward debt financing.
• Household tax systems often provide mortgage interest deductions while not taxing capital gains or imputed rents, also contributing to debt bias.

3. Effects of Debt Bias

• Debt bias increases corporate debt ratios by an average of 7% of total assets, including for financial institutions.
• It amplifies financial vulnerabilities and raises the risk of macroeconomic instability, especially when households face economic shocks.
• Debt bias is a key factor in the financial sector and may contribute to the buildup of financial bubbles and crises.

4. Tax Policy Reforms and Their Impact

• Several countries have implemented reforms to reduce debt bias, such as limiting interest deductibility and introducing allowances for corporate equity (ACE).
• ACE has been shown to effectively reduce corporate leverage, including for banks.
• The base-narrowing effect of ACE could reduce CIT revenue by up to 12%, but the impact is smaller if ACE is granted only to new equity.
• Bank levies have been introduced in Europe to increase bank capitalization and reduce leverage.

5. Housing Market and Tax Policy

• Taxes on housing, such as recurrent property taxes, have been found to reduce house price volatility, making them an attractive revenue tool.
• Transaction taxes have had mixed results in curbing house price fluctuations.
• Tax policies can influence housing demand and price trends, though implementation timing and lag effects are important considerations.

6. Case Studies of Tax Policy Interventions

• Hong Kong: Implemented seller and buyer stamp duties to cool the housing market, leading to a decline in house price growth.
• Singapore: Introduced progressive stamp duties and transaction taxes, which helped moderate price increases.
• China: Increased property taxes and removed tax exemptions, leading to a slowdown in housing demand.
• Sweden: Reduced mortgage interest deductibility and introduced full VAT on housing-related activities, resulting in a significant drop in house prices.
• Ireland: Implemented measures to discourage speculative housing demand, including anti-speculative taxes and changes to mortgage interest deductibility.

Key Findings

• Debt bias is a major contributor to macroeconomic instability, particularly in the financial sector.
• ACE is a promising tool to reduce corporate debt bias, with minimal implementation challenges.
• Recurrent property taxes have a clear and measurable impact on reducing house price volatility.
• Tax policy reforms have supported private sector deleveraging but have not fully eliminated debt bias.
• Taxation and regulation are complementary in managing leverage and stability risks.

Policy Recommendations

• Countries should prioritize tax reform to neutralize debt bias in both corporate and household sectors.
• Sector-specific tax measures may be necessary, especially in the financial sector, to address unique leverage risks.
• Tax policies should be designed to ensure neutrality in the treatment of different assets and forms of income.
• Macroprudential and fiscal policies should work together to manage housing market risks and leverage levels.

Conclusion

The document concludes that addressing debt bias through tax reform is essential for enhancing macroeconomic and financial stability. While some reforms have had positive effects, more comprehensive and targeted measures are needed to fully mitigate the risks associated with excessive private leverage. The Allowance for Corporate Equity (ACE) and sector-specific tax measures are highlighted as effective tools in this regard.