世界银行-全球通货膨胀的原因（英）-2023.12-56页_795kb

What Explains Global Inflation: Key Findings Summary

• Main Drivers:

  • Oil price shocks are the dominant driver of global headline CPI inflation (38%), followed by global demand shocks (28%).
  • Global supply shocks and global interest rate shocks contribute modestly (12–18% and 16–20%, respectively).

• Temporal Evolution:

  • Since 2001, oil and global demand shocks have accounted for 65% of inflation variation, up from 56% in earlier periods.
  • The role of global supply shocks declined significantly, from 25% (1970–1985) to 12% (2001–2022).

• Inflation Measure Specifics:

  • Core CPI inflation: More influenced by global supply shocks (41%) due to energy and food exclusion.
  • Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation: Shares characteristics similar to headline CPI, but global supply shocks explain a larger portion.

• Global Recessions: Oil price and global demand shocks consistently explain inflation changes during recessions (e.g., 2020 pandemic).

• Robustness: Results hold across alternative country samples, inflation measures, and identification methods.

Implications: Global inflation is shaped by a combination of energy, demand, and supply dynamics, with policy and structural factors evolving over decades.