世界银行-《尼泊尔发展动态》，2023年10月：恢复出口竞争力（英）-52页_9mb

Nepal Development Update - October 2023 Summary

I. Introduction

This report analyzes Nepal's economic performance in Fiscal Year 2023, highlighting key developments, risks, and opportunities for growth. The economy experienced a slowdown, driven by monetary tightening, import restrictions, and high inflation, but external balances improved, and growth is projected to rebound in the medium term. The Special Focus section examines factors hindering export competitiveness and provides policy recommendations.

II. Key Economic Developments

• Growth and Inflation: Real GDP growth slowed to 1.9%, the lowest since FY20, with average consumer inflation at 7.8%. High inflation constrained growth and aggregate demand.
• External Sector: The current account deficit narrowed significantly, supported by reduced imports and higher remittances. Imports fell due to policy restrictions and India's export bans, while remittances surged to a five-year high.
• Real Sector: Agriculture remained resilient, growing by 2.7%, but industry and services contracted due to high prices and reduced demand. Hydroelectric production expanded, aiding industrial output.
• Monetary and Fiscal Sectors: Credit growth slowed due to policy measures, and fiscal revenues declined sharply because half are trade-related. The fiscal deficit reached 6.1% of GDP, the highest in decades, exacerbating public debt.

III. Outlook and Risks

• Growth Projections: GDP growth is expected to rebound to 3.9% in FY24 and 5% in FY25, driven by easing import restrictions, hydroelectric expansion, and remittances, but risks include persistent inflation and sector-specific slowdowns.
• Risks: High inflation could drag on real incomes; external imbalances may widen if imports rise; agricultural output is vulnerable to disease and climate shocks; political uncertainty could deter investment.

IV. Special Focus: External Competitiveness

• Export Challenges: Nepal's exports stagnated due to real exchange rate appreciation and a significant productivity deficit across sectors, making it harder for firms to compete in global markets. Larger firms and exports to India are more impacted.
• Recommendations: Policies should enhance productivity through tax reforms (reducing import tariffs, shifting taxes away from trade), strengthen fiscal federalism for better infrastructure, and control inflation to stabilize competitiveness and leverage Nepal's demographic dividend.

For further details, refer to the full report.