世界银行-重建旅游业竞争力：旅游业对COVID-19危机的反应，恢复和抵御能力（英文）-2020.8-48页_4mb

Summary of "Rebuilding Tourism Competitiveness" (July 2020)

Core Content

The document "Rebuilding Tourism Competitiveness" provides an analysis of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the global travel and tourism sector, highlighting the sector-specific challenges, country vulnerabilities, and policy responses necessary to support recovery. It emphasizes the need for a structured three-phase approach to navigate the crisis and rebuild a more resilient and sustainable tourism industry.

Main Points

1. Global Context and Current Impact

• The travel and tourism sector was one of the first to be severely impacted by the pandemic, with international travel nearly ceasing by mid-April 2020.
• Global travel and tourism revenues have nearly tripled since 2000, contributing 10.4% of global GDP and one out of every 10 jobs worldwide.
• The WTTC estimates that the sector could lose up to 100 million jobs and $2.7 trillion in revenue in 2020.
• Travel restrictions have been implemented in all countries, with 72% of them completely halting international travel.
• The median age of the global population is higher than ever, making older populations more vulnerable to the virus and less likely to travel.

2. Sector Impacts and Country Vulnerabilities

• The tourism value chain includes airlines, hotels, tour operators, cruise lines, and digital platforms, all of which have been severely affected.
• Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs) are at greater risk of failure, as they lack the financial resilience and flexibility of larger firms.
• Aviation has seen sharp declines in passenger flights, with global flight volumes down 63% as of June 2020. International flights have been hit the hardest, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa, Europe, and Latin America.
• Hotel revenues have collapsed, with 75% drop in most markets compared to 2019. Occupancy rates are below 20% in many countries.
• Tour operators have experienced unprecedented stress, with many waiving fees to encourage future bookings. SMEs in developing countries are particularly vulnerable.
• Cruise operators have been at the frontline of the pandemic, with major outbreaks on cruise ships contributing to the global spread. Cruise lines are at high risk due to crowded environments and elderly demographics.
• Digital platforms and Global Distribution Systems (GDS) are also affected, with small-scale providers facing access barriers.

3. Policy Responses

• Governments have used a range of support instruments, including tax rebates, fee waivers, cash grants, and employment subsidies.
• Debt finance is the most common form of support, but regulatory easing and public investment are also critical.
• The three-phase approach recommended includes:
  • Phase 1 (Immediate Response): Focus on containing the virus and supporting viable businesses.
  • Phase 2 (Short-term Recovery): Build understanding of consumer sentiment and develop new products.
  • Phase 3 (Medium-term Recovery): Enhance sector resilience and sustainability through regulatory reforms, eco-friendly tourism models, and technology integration.

Key Information

• Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs) make up 80% of the tourism sector and are at highest risk of collapse.
• The pandemic may lead to consolidation and vertical integration in the sector, which could reduce service variety and quality.
• Developing countries are likely to face greater challenges due to limited financial resources, vulnerable tourism operators, and less resilient infrastructure.
• Domestic and regional tourism are expected to recover faster than inter-regional tourism, especially in markets dependent on China, Europe, and the U.S..
• Governments must monitor the impact of support measures to avoid unintended consequences.
• The World Bank Group continues to monitor and advise on sectoral changes and recovery strategies, focusing on health standards, demand shifts, business model changes, innovation, and public investment.

Conclusion

The travel and tourism sector is expected to emerge smaller, less diverse, and more consolidated than before the pandemic. Recovery will be inevitable but gradual, requiring strategic support from governments and stakeholders to rebuild resilience, stimulate demand, and position the sector for long-term sustainability. The focus should shift from short-term survival to long-term transformation, ensuring inclusive and eco-friendly tourism models are developed.