2012年-IMF国际货币组织全球_St_Kitts_and_Nevis_First_Review_Under_the_Stand_47页_783kb

Summary of St. Kitts and Nevis – First Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement and the Financing Assurance Review

Core Content

This document outlines the First Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) and the Financing Assurance Review for St. Kitts and Nevis, conducted by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) staff in consultation with the country's authorities. The review was completed on January 12, 2012, following discussions that ended on December 12, 2011. The report includes the Letter of Intent (LOI) and Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies (MEFP), which detail the country's economic policies and performance against the SBA program.

The IMF staff report highlights the economic performance, program progress, and policy discussions for the period up to end-September 2011, with an outlook for 2012. It also addresses the requests for waivers and modifications of performance criteria, which were approved by the Executive Board.

Main Points

1. Economic Context and Performance

• Economic Activity: Remained flat in 2011 due to continued weakness in the construction sector, offset by moderate recovery in tourism and manufacturing.
• Inflation: Averaged 6.6% in the first ten months of 2011, but dropped to 1.6% in November 2011.
• Current Account Deficit: Widened in 2011, but was partially financed by FDI, capital transfers, and Fund disbursements.
• Program Performance: All quantitative performance criteria (PCs) for end-September 2011 were met. Three structural benchmarks (SBs) were delayed but completed by the end of December 2011 as prior actions (PAs) for the review.
• Fiscal Targets: The end-December 2011 fiscal targets were likely met, with the overall deficit projected at 2.1% of GDP (EC$40.5 million), below the initial projection of 3.1% of GDP (EC$59.9 million).

2. Program Objectives and Implementation

• Fiscal Sustainability: Authorities are committed to fiscal sustainability, freezing the wage bill and containing expenditure on goods and services.
• Revenue Measures: New Corporation Tax Act is proposed to limit personal income deductions to one entity, and tax compliance efforts are being intensified.
• Debt Restructuring: A comprehensive debt restructuring plan was announced in June 2011, including a debt-land swap and a Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) to manage the process.
• Public Enterprises: The government will make external debt service payments on behalf of three public enterprises, which are included in current transfers for transparency.

3. Structural Reforms and Financial Sector Stability

• Structural Reforms: Focus on public financial management, establishment of SPV, social safety net reform, actuarial review of the Social Security Scheme, and civil service reform.
• Financial Sector: The ECCB continues to conduct regular stress tests, now quarterly under the program, to ensure stability. The Banking Sector Reserve Fund (BSRF) remains a key stabilization mechanism.

4. Debt Sustainability

• Public Debt Level: At 160% of GDP in 2011, the debt is considered unsustainably high by international standards.
• Debt Restructuring Impact: The comprehensive restructuring is expected to reduce the debt-to-GDP ratio to align with the ECCU target of 60% by 2020.
• Debt-land Swap: Expected to be a key component, especially for secured debt, and the SPV is being developed to facilitate this.

Key Information

• Stand-By Arrangement (SBA): Approved on July 27, 2011, for SDR 52.51 million (590% of quota), with SDR 22.15 million disbursed.
• Second Tranche: A second tranche of SDR 11.47 million will be available upon completion of this review.
• Prior Actions (PAs): All PAs, including the 2012 budget approval, the completion of delayed SBs, and the submission of the Electricity Supply Bill, were met.
• Debt Restructuring: The restructuring process includes a debt-land swap, and the Caribbean Development Bank (CDB) is providing partial guarantees for the new instrument.
• Contingency Measures: Authorities identified contingency measures amounting to 1% of GDP in case of a shortfall, to be reviewed in future assessments.

Program Risks and Outlook

• Downside Risks: The global economic recovery remains uncertain, increasing risks for St. Kitts and Nevis, which is heavily reliant on FDI and tourism.
• Fiscal Outlook: Projected economic growth for 2012 is 1.5%, with inflation expected to revert to the historical average of 2.3%.
• Balance of Payments: External financing gaps are projected to reach US$80 million annually (about 11% of GDP), reflecting the maturity profile of public debt.
• Revisions: The fiscal deficit was revised upward by 0.5 percentage points to 3.0% of GDP due to increased external debt service payments and reduced transfers.

Conclusion

The IMF staff supports the authorities' request for the completion of the first review, recognizing the progress made in fiscal sustainability and debt restructuring. The comprehensive restructuring is seen as essential to achieving long-term debt sustainability. The program remains on track, with the authorities continuing to implement structural reforms and maintain financial sector stability.

The review underscores the importance of continued adherence to the SBA program, with the outlook for 2012 being cautiously optimistic, contingent on the successful implementation of the debt restructuring and ongoing economic recovery.