2015-12-31-莱坊-Kigali_Market_Update_H1_2016_6页_1mb

Rwanda Market Update H1 2016 Economic Overview

• GDP growth in Q1 2016 was 7.3%, down from 7.6% in Q1 2015.
• GDP increased to RWF 1.536 trillion from RWF 1.384 trillion in Q1 2015.
• Inflation remained subdued at an average of 5.5% for H1 2016, below the 5% target.
• Currency depreciation: Rwandan Franc weakened 4.1% against USD by June 2016 due to external factors.

Sector Contributions

• Agriculture: Driven by 5% growth, contributed 2.1% to GDP increase.
• Industry: Showed robust growth of approximately 10%, impacting at least 1.5% of GDP.
• Services: Grew by 7%, contributing 3.4% to GDP growth.

Real Estate Analysis

• Residential demand surged due to events like CHAN and WEF, with high occupancy in hotels (e.g., 98% at Lemigo Hotel).
• New developments: Five-star hotels opening in H2 2016 included Marriott and Radisson Blu, contributing to MICE tourism rise.
• Office market under supply, with prime rents ranging $16-25 per sqm for Grade A.
• Retail sector saw increased footfall during large events, rental rates varying from $10-25 per sqm based on space size.

Tourism and Future Outlook

• Tourism is the main income earner, expected to grow to RWF 297.8 billion (2.9% of GDP) by 2025.
• Key events in 2016, such as AFR Union Summit and WEF Africa, projected to boost GDP growth to 6.8% and increase hospitality demand.

Inflation and Financials

• Inflation drivers: Rising food prices, housing, transportation.
• Private sector credit increased 26.3% YoY, with improved loan affordability; currency issues impacted export revenues and imports.