2015-12-31-莱坊-EU_Referendum_Update_March_2016_2页_731kb

EU Referendum and UK Housing Market

The EU referendum scheduled for June 23, 2016, introduced economic uncertainty affecting the UK housing market. Market activity remained resilient due to domestic drivers, with steady growth in housing starts and completions since 2013. Factors included the potential impact of Brexit and the weakening pound, which could influence central London transactions. Although uncertainty might lead to a slowdown post-referendum, domestic dynamics are key, and analysis suggests a relatively benign outcome. Pre-referendum data showed rising transactions and development volumes, though prime central London prices slowed due to stamp duty reforms, not the referendum. The office market also showed resilience, with increased acquisitions in London despite the backdrop of uncertainty.

Key Trends from Data

• Housing starts and sales volumes grew steadily since 2013 and continued post-referendum affirmation.
• Prime central London prices decelerated due to recent stamp duty changes, not the referendum directly.
• Overall market imbalance is driven by supply-demand factors, particularly in London and the South-East, exacerbated by decades of undersupply.

Post-Referendum Considerations

A clear outcome may resolve immediate uncertainty, potentially leading to a recovery. Regardless of Brexit, housing market effects are expected to be modest given the strong role of domestic factors. Market resilience across other sectors, like office spaces in London, suggests ongoing robust performance.