2022-06-03-莱坊-Australian_Residential_Market_Update_June_2022_2页_1mb

Australian Residential Market Update Summary (June 2022)

Core Content

The Australian residential property market is currently shaped by three key trends: the introduction of the Help to Buy shared equity scheme, rising construction costs, and economic growth dynamics. These trends are influencing both homebuyers and the broader construction industry.

Main Government Initiative: Help to Buy Scheme

The Albanese Labor Government has introduced a Help to Buy shared equity scheme aimed at helping 10,000 Australians into home ownership faster. Key features include:

• Minimum deposit of 2% for eligible home buyers.
• Federal Government equity contribution:
  • Up to 40% of the purchase price for new homes.
  • Up to 30% of the purchase price for existing homes.
• No rent required on the government-held stake.
• Potential savings:
  • In Sydney, monthly mortgage repayments could be $1,600 cheaper.
  • In regional Queensland, monthly repayments could be $850 cheaper.
• Lenders Mortgage Insurance (LMI) exemption for eligible buyers, which can save over $30,000 depending on location.
• Option to purchase additional stake over time, with a minimum stake of 5%.

To fund the scheme, the government has proposed doubling foreign investment screening fees and financial penalties starting from July 2022.

Economic Growth and Market Dynamics

• The Australian economy is expected to grow at more than 3% in 2022, before moderating in 2023.
• Real GDP growth in the March 2022 quarter was 0.8% (3.3% annual growth), slightly above expectations.
• Consumer and government spending were key drivers of this growth.
• Household savings ratio fell from 13.4% to 11.4% in the first quarter of 2022.
• Private investment increased by 0.5%, but dwelling investment fell by 1.0%, despite a strong pipeline.
• Labour and material shortages continue to impact construction activity.

State-Level Economic Growth

• Victoria recorded the strongest growth with 2.4% increase in state final demand (SFD).
• Western Australia and Northern Territory both saw 2.2% growth.
• Australian Capital Territory had 1.7% growth.
• New South Wales and Queensland recorded 1.2% and 0.8% growth, respectively.
• Tasmania experienced a 0.6% contraction.

Construction Cost Trends

• The cost to build a new home reached a record high, increasing by $76,715 in the year to April 2022.
• The average value of new homes approved surpassed $400,000 for the first time.
• This has placed significant pressure on home builders, especially those under fixed-price contracts, with some entering administration.

Approval Trends by State

• Dwelling approvals fell in New South Wales (-6.8%), Queensland (-4.5%), and Western Australia (-0.3%).
• Dwelling approvals increased in South Australia (50.3%), Tasmania (10.6%), and Victoria (7.8%).
• Private sector house approvals rose in South Australia (7.7%) and Queensland (6.2%), but fell in New South Wales (-3.6%), Victoria (-0.9%), and Western Australia (-0.2%).

Market Indicators

• Capital values:
  • Month-over-Month (MoM): -0.1%
  • Quarter-over-Quarter (QoQ): 1.1%
  • Year-over-Year (YoY): 14.1%
• New Listings (Rolling 28-day count, YoY): -10.3%
• Total Listings (Rolling 28-day count, YoY): -2.4%
• Auction Clearance Rate (Total Auctions): 59.3% (3,226 auctions)

Contact Information

• Residential Research: Knight Frank Research Reports
• Property Advice: Contact Michelle Ciesielski at:
  • Email: michelle.ciesielski@au.knightfrank.com
  • Phone: +61 2 9036 6659
• Media Enquiries: Contact Caroline Stanley at:
  • Email: cstanley@gracosway.com.au
  • Phone: +61 4 0217 0901

Disclaimer

This report is for general information only and should not be relied upon for any decision-making. Knight Frank Australia Pty Ltd does not accept any responsibility or liability for losses or damages arising from the use of this information. Reproduction of this report is not allowed without prior written approval.