2025-06-17-花旗集团-欧洲要点_13页_206kb

Point

• Renault: Luca de Meo resigns as CEO, adding uncertainty to the company despite strong financials and upcoming restructuring. Shares at near year-lows; rating remains Buy.
• European Metals & Mining: Positive sentiment increasing; long positioning scores rise, particularly for GLEN and FRES.
• European Building Products & Materials: Short positioning scores increase; bearish trend in building materials, with Heidelberg and Toll Road stocks showing resilience in infrastructure.

Top Call Must Read

• Renault: CEO resignation creates uncertainty; upcoming "Renaulution" plan risks investor confidence due to geopolitical and tariff concerns.
• European Metals & Mining: Crowding data shows positive sentiment shift; long scores up, short scores down, with improved investor sentiment on Impala.
• European Building Materials & Infrastructure: Increased short crowding; positive trend in Toll Roads (Eiffage, Vinci) and Airport stocks (Zurich Airport); bearish sentiment rises for building materials.
• Beiersdorf: H2 relies heavily on launches; cut Target Price to EUR140 due to Nivea challenges; OSG and margins hinge on strong H2 performance.
• AIB Group PLC: Irish government sells remaining stake via bookbuild; fully divested, with Buy rating upheld.
• JDE Peet's: Managing volume backlash; revised TP to EUR23.5, supported by premium segment growth and coffee market dynamics.
• Entain: BetMGM upgrades FY25 guidance; positive EBIT outlook based on strong iGaming and sports trends; expected share price reaction.
• Auto1 Group: Plans to hire 2,000 employees, supporting growth; opex increase may weigh on near-term profitability but set up profitable expansion.

Industry

• UK Diversified Banks: TSB acquisition considered useful; execution risks, particularly IT migration.
• UK Homebuilding: Asking house prices dip in June but activity remains healthy; affordability improves, supporting demand despite price declines in southern regions.
• European Infrastructure: Summary of key events, data, airport capacity changes, and flight trends.

Strategy & Economics

• Crowded Trades: Shifted in April/May, with cyclical/growth sectors most crowded; defensive sectors least crowded as earnings alleviate recession fears.
• Equity Markets Positioning: US large caps momentum extends; DAX leads Europe's downward trend; Asia shows bullish momentum in KOSPI and Hang Seng.
• Global Sector Selection: Model update forecasts mid-June to mid-July 2025, incorporating news sentiment into short-term dynamics.

Commodities

• Global 3Q '25 Outlook: Gold nears peak; ME escalation increases risk premium; EUAs bullish, aluminum structurally positive due to demand from robotics/AI; critical minerals impact platinum/zinc.
• Oil Market Impact: Brent oil up to $77-78/bbl due to geopolitical risks; price rally driven by potential disruption fears, with limited output impact.

Key Rating and Target Price Changes

• Beiersdorf: Target Price lowered to EUR140 from 160; rationale based on H2 launch reliance and Nivea challenges.
• JDE Peet's: Target Price raised to EUR23.5 from 20.10; reflects gross profit resilience and premium segment strength.
• Other changes may exist, but key adjustments highlight revised market expectations.