2025-06-17-花旗集团-五十铃汽车（7202）_五十铃汽车（7202.T）模型更新_12页_515kb

Isuzu Motors (7202.T) - Citi Research Analysis

Investment Recommendation

• Rating: Neutral (2)
• Target Price: ¥1,900 (down from previous ¥2,000)
• Dividend Yield: 5.1% (expected)
• Expected Share Price Return: 5.1%
• Expected Total Return: 10.2%

Key Financial Figures (FY3/26 onwards)

• Market Cap: ¥1,286,594M (≈US$8.9B)
• 3/26 Ending Revenue (E): ¥3,458,900M
• 3/27 Ending Revenue (E): ¥3,547,900M
• 3/28 EPS (E): ¥267.4

Valuation

• Target EPS (FY3/27): ¥240
• Target PER (8x): Average of the last five years.
• Core NPAT Growth E (2026-2028): +6.6% (3/26E), +13.2% (3/27E), +7.2% (3/28E)

Concerns/Downgrade Drivers

• Downward revisions due to: Tariffs, strong yen, increasing development costs.
• Medium-term plan (FY3/27 RoE of 15%) is expected to be missed.
• Reliance on gradual market recovery post-2025H2.
• Risk factors: Declining domestic truck sales, Asia sales declines, forex volatility, supply issues, cost inflation, protectionist measures.

Outlook & Assumptions

• Conservative base-case scenario assumes slow recovery and tough competition.
• Valuation considers historical PER, global comparisons, and alliance synergies.
• Buys into generous shareholder returns (dividends + potential buybacks ~¥50bn/yr).

Ex-Dividend Date

• Not explicitly stated but dividend related items are present.

Analyst Certification & Important Disclosures (Summary)

• Analyst responsible: Arifumi Yoshida (Citi Global Markets Japan Inc.)
• Crucial: Citigroup received non-investment banking compensation from Isuzu Motors within 12 months. Analyst certification involves specific (but generic per text) disclosures regarding independence and methodology limitations. All DISCLAIMERS regarding methodology, compensation structure (not tied to recommendations), data sources (e.g., DataCentral), legal liabilities, and distribution apply universally and are detailed extensively. These include standard conflicts, compensation links, FINRA rules interpretation, CFAI ESG comments, and jurisdiction-specific legal disclaimers (e.g., US conflict, Israeli retail exclusion, Turkish capital market law).
• The primary rating is "Neutral (Hold)".
• Past performance does not guarantee future results.