20220120-招银国际-三一国际-00631.HK-NDR_takeaways__Growth_to_accelerate_in_2022E_on_strong_backlog_4页_881kb

报告摘要

SANY International (631 HK) Company Update Summary

Core Content Overview

SANY International (631 HK) has demonstrated strong growth potential and operational improvements, supported by robust demand across its segments and a strategic shift towards intelligent and electric products. The company's management provided updates on recent developments, indicating a solid backlog and expansion into new energy markets.

Key Highlights

1. Demand and Backlog

Monthly order intake reached 70-80 sets, significantly higher than 45-50 units in early 2021.
Visibility has increased to 3 months, up from 1-2 months previously.
Intelligent models (with 40-45% gross margin) accounted for 50% of new orders, and this ratio is expected to increase due to the trend of unmanned mining operations.
Combined coal mining equipment (CCMU) backlog reached RMB1.5bn, with an additional RMB300mn contract to be signed, equivalent to 6 months of production capacity.
Mining trucks delivered ~1,900 units in 2021, and a RMB300mn contract was signed in December 2021 for 1,710 units of wide-body trucks.
The company aims to achieve 800-1,000 units of electric wide-body trucks this year, with a target of >50% electric ratio within 3-5 years.
The 2nd generation mining truck model is expected to improve gross margin.

2. Logistic Equipment

Strong demand in large-size port machinery due to overseas recovery, with a RMB1.8bn backlog (including RMB800mn from overseas).
Small-size machinery backlog is RMB600mn (including RMB200mn from overseas).
Growth is driven by reach stackers, heavy forklifts, and electric tractors.

3. Robotic Business

AGVs and electric forklifts are expected to grow faster than system integration.
SANYI has helped SANY Group upgrade 27 smart factories (out of 46 total).
Recently secured a RMB900mn contract with CRRC for AGVs.
Established a distribution network to boost external sales.
Current backlog is RMB700-800mn, with a potential RMB900mn contract in discussion.

4. Earnings and Forecast

Revenue is projected to grow from RMB5,656mn (FY19A) to RMB17,505mn (FY23E).
Net income is expected to rise from RMB920mn (FY19A) to RMB1,965mn (FY23E).
EPS is forecasted to increase from RMB0.30 (FY19A) to RMB0.63 (FY23E).
Earnings forecast for 2021E/22E was revised by -4% / +2% respectively.
Target Price (TP) was revised to HK$14.6, up from HK$14.3, based on a 23x P/E for 2022E.
Current Price: HK$7.71, implying a +89% upside to the TP.

5. Valuation Metrics

EV/EBITDA decreased from 14.1 (FY19A) to 7.0 (FY23E).
P/E dropped from 23.5 (FY19A) to 10.2 (FY23E).
P/B declined from 3.0 (FY19A) to 1.8 (FY23E).
ROE improved from 14% (FY19A) to 19% (FY23E).
Net gearing remains net cash throughout the forecast period.

Key Financial Ratios

Metric	FY19A	FY20A	FY21E	FY22E	FY23E
Revenue (RMB mn)	5,656	7,364	10,569	14,668	17,505
YoY Growth (%)	28.1	30.2	43.5	38.8	19.3
Net Income (RMB mn)	920	1,045	1,276	1,659	1,965
EPS (RMB)	0.30	0.34	0.41	0.53	0.63
YoY Growth (%)	51.3	12.5	21.4	30.0	18.5
Consensus EPS (RMB)	N/A	N/A	0.42	0.51	0.62
EV/EBITDA (x)	14.1	12.4	10.3	8.1	7.0
P/E (x)	23.5	20.0	15.8	12.1	10.2
P/B (x)	3.0	2.7	2.3	2.0	1.8
Yield (%)	1.6	2.0	2.5	3.3	3.9
ROE (%)	13.6	14.0	15.4	17.9	18.7
Net gearing (%)	Net cash	Net cash	Net cash	Net cash	Net cash

Shareholding and Stock Data

Shareholding Structure:
- Sany Heavy Equipment: 67.7%
- Free float: 32.3%
Stock Data:
- Market Cap (HK$ mn): 24,318
- Average 3-month total return (HK$ mn): 21
- 52-week High/Low (HK$): 10.80 / 6.22
- Total Issued Shares (mn): 3,126

Share Performance

Period	Absolute	Relative
1-mth	-0.3%	-4.1%
3-mth	-19.2%	-14.8%
6-mth	-2.6%	13.2%

Key Assumptions and Revenue Breakdown

Segment	Old 2021E	Old 2022E	Old 2023E	New 2021E	New 2022E	New 2023E	Change
Road Header	1,703	1,912	2,047	2,050	2,522	2,676	+20.4% / +32.0% / +30.7%
CCMU	2,214	2,635	3,030	1,771	2,922	3,361	-20.0% / +10.9% / +10.9%
Small-size Port Machinery	2,376	2,804	3,280	2,376	2,970	3,475	0.0% / +5.9% / +5.9%
Large-size Port Machinery	864	1,339	1,741	864	1,339	1,661	0.0% / 0.0% / -4.6%
Mining Trucks	1,460	2,069	2,816	1,773	2,700	3,704	+21.4% / +30.5% / +31.5%
After Sales Service	609	646	684	655	918	1,009	+7.6% / +42.1% / +47.5%
Robot	1,080	1,296	1,620	1,080	1,296	1,620	0.0% / 0.0% / 0.0%
Total Revenue	10,306	12,699	15,219	10,569	14,668	17,505	+2.6% / +15.5% / +15.0%

Growth and Margin Trends

Gross margin is expected to decrease slightly, with a blended gross margin of 24.9% (Old) to 25.1% (New).
EBITDA margin is forecasted to decrease from 24% (FY19A) to 16% (FY23E).
EBIT margin is projected to decline from 19% (FY19A) to 14% (FY23E).
Net profit margin is expected to remain stable at 12% for FY22E and FY23E.

Analyst Recommendation

Rating: BUY
Target Price: HK$14.60
Previous TP: HK$14.30
Upside: +89%

Major Risk Factors

Weakening mining activities
Higher-than-expected costs for new products
Rising raw material costs and freight rates

Conclusion

SANY International is positioned for accelerated growth in 2022E due to its strong backlog, diversified product portfolio, and strategic focus on intelligent and electric products. Despite the risks, the company shows improving financial performance, with increased revenue and margin expansion across key segments. The BUY rating reflects the positive outlook and growth potential for the company in the next 12 months.