世界银行-移民_非洲未开发的潜力（英）-2025_119页_6mb

Migration: Africa's Untapped Potential

Key Migration Trends

• Intramigration dominates: Most African migration occurs within the continent.
• Continent remains low-migration: Only ~1% of Africa’s population migrates abroad.
• Outmigration shifts: Fewer migrants head to Europe (55%); more are heading to North America and GCC countries.
• Geographical diversity: Some small island nations have very high emigration rates.
• North Africa shift: Traditionally sending countries, increasingly becoming destinations.
• High irregular migration deaths: Highest global rate (2023: ~3,784 deaths).
• Forced displacement high: Africa hosts ~41 million displaced people (1/4th of world’s refugee population).
• Predominant youth migration: Only 1.8 per 1,000 youth in Africa's core pursue tertiary education abroad.

Economic Potential and Challenges

• Wage gains: Migrants to core regions (Africa's geographical core) often earn ~1.9× higher wages in core destination countries, while GCC/other destinations provide moderate gains.
• Remittances low: Core countries receive significantly less remittances per capita than other regions (US$1,429 vs. US$2,543 in OECD countries).
• High remittance costs: Average cost ~7.9% globally (vs. SDG target of 3%), significantly hindering returns for migrants.

Policy Recommendations

Africa Can Benefit from Global Megatrends

• Leverage Great Demographic Divergence: Africa could benefit from aging populations in high-income countries requiring youth labor.
• Exploit skill demands: Focus on skills needed by high-income countries, particularly in health care and services.

From Policies to Results

• Deliberate strategic migration policies: Ensure better matching of migrants’ skills with destination labor markets.
• Foster regional migration: Lower barriers within REC (Regional Economic Communities) to increase intraregional mobility.

For Forced Displacement

• Manage new opportunities: Allow better economic integration for refugees and IDPs to harness their potential while safeguarding their dignity.
• Secure legal pathways: Enhance local options to avoid distressed migration and exploitation.

Harnessing the Productive Potential of African Mobility

• Bilateral Labor Migration Agreements (BLMAs): Increase scope and use across Africa, respecting and integrating worker rights.
• Leverage diaspora for development: Mobile operators and diaspora finance mechanisms (bonds, grants) increase remittance affordability.

Migration Overview

African migration is largely large-scale but low-volume. While the continent's population is set to grow dramatically by 2050 (<1/4th is currently below 15 years), migration remains low. This creates a demographic youth bulge without sufficient productive employment opportunities.

There is an underutilization of migration's potential for both origin and destination countries. This can be capitalized on with deliberate policies on a multilateral scale, especially as Africa prepares to host an even larger proportion of the world’s youth by mid-century.

However, the continent continues to face high rates of irregular migration and forced displacement. The consequences of migration on host communities, economic integration, and worker recognition remain significant challenges for sustainable development.

Migration can serve Africa’s development goals—if unlocked properly—making the most of gains from a demographic youth bulge and aging populations in the Global North, including by better infrastructure for decent work and regional integration.