2025-05-26-Jefferies-美国尼尔森_截至5月17日的4周数据_11页_576kb

US Nielsen Report Summary: 4 Weeks to 17 May

Core Content

This report provides a summary of the US Nielsen data for beer and spirits sales from 4 weeks ending 17 May, highlighting trends in value, volume, and price/mix for key brands and companies. It also includes market share changes and sales growth charts for various spirits and beer segments.

Key Trends and Insights

Spirits

• Overall Trends:

  • Value growth for spirits was -0.3% (vs. previous -0.4%).
  • Volume growth was +2.6% (vs. previous +2.4%).
  • Price/mix was -2.9% (vs. previous -2.7%), indicating continued downward pressure, primarily due to the growth of spirits-based RTDs, which have lower revenue per case.

• Brand Performance:

  • Casamigos: Sales decreased by -18.6% (vs. previous -13.2%).
  • Don Julio: Sales increased by +19.2% (vs. previous +23.6%).
  • Buchanan's: Sales dropped by -12.4% (vs. previous -13.9%).
  • Crown Royal: Sales declined by -0.1% (vs. previous -9.6%).
  • Pernod Ricard: Continued weak performance with volume -7.8% and value -6.4% (vs. previous -7.0% and -6.0%).
  • Jameson: Volume and value growth was +0.2% / -1.0% (vs. previous 0% / -1.7%).
  • Campari: Muted trends with volume -1.8% and value -1.9% (vs. previous -3.4% and -1.7%).
  • Aperol: Volume and value increased by +4.7% / +6.4% (vs. previous +7.4% / +11.1%).
  • Remy Cointreau: Small improvement in volume and value, with -12.2% / -15.0% (vs. previous -14.9% / -17.6%).
  • Remy Martin Cognac: Sales dropped by -20.6% (vs. previous -21.1%).
  • Beam Suntory: Moderate decline in volume and value with -9.4% / -14.1% (vs. previous -13.9% / -15.7%).
  • Sazerac: Improved performance with volume -9.4% and value -14.1% (vs. previous -13.9% / -15.7%).
  • Molson Coors: Decline in volume and value with -23.5% / -38.0% (vs. previous -22.8% / -35.3%).
  • Constellation: Weak performance with volume -38.0% and value -48.7% (vs. previous -35.3% / -48.8%).

Beer

• Overall Trends:

  • Value growth for beer was -2.0% (vs. previous -2.2%).
  • Volume growth was -3.4% (vs. previous -4.0%).
  • Price/mix slightly improved to +1.4% (vs. previous +1.7%).

• Brand Performance:

  • ABI: Sales declined by -0.7% (vs. previous -2.5%), with Bud Light down -8.8% and Michelob Ultra up +4.2%.
  • TAP: Sales declined by -4.7% (vs. previous -4.4%).
  • Heineken USA: Sales dropped by -7.9% (vs. previous -7.8%).
  • Heineken brand: Sales fell by -8.7% (vs. previous -6.9%).
  • Constellation: Sales increased slightly by +0.1% (vs. previous +2.0%).

Key Takeaways

• Spirits value growth was -0.3%, slightly better than the previous -0.4%, but still under pressure due to the impact of spirits-based RTDs.
• Beer value growth remained stable at -2.0%, with a slight improvement in price/mix.
• Michelob Ultra showed strong momentum, while Bud Light continued to underperform.
• Diageo and Pernod Ricard had mixed results, with Diageo showing a slight improvement in volume and value, and Pernod Ricard struggling with weak performance.
• Remy Cointreau showed a small improvement in volume and value, but remained weak overall.
• Hard seltzers continued to see volume and value declines, though some brands like Mark Anthony showed signs of recovery.

Market Share Changes (Year-on-Year)

• Mark Anthony saw a slight increase in market share to 68.0% (vs. previous 63.9%).
• Boston Beer and Molson Coors experienced significant declines in market share, with Boston Beer at 17.5% and Molson Coors at 5.5%.
• Diageo and Constellation had varying degrees of market share changes, with Diageo improving slightly and Constellation showing a strong decline.

Investment and Analyst Information

• The report is authored by Edward Mundy, ACA and Andrei Andon-Ionita, CFA from Jefferies.
• Non-US analysts are not registered with FINRA, which may affect the applicability of certain regulations.
• Analysts may receive compensation based on firm performance, including investment banking income.

Additional Notes

• The report includes charts and graphs for visual representation of sales growth and market share changes.
• There are disclosure statements regarding the firm's relationship with certain companies, including FeverTree Drinks.
• The report is subject to regulatory restrictions and may not be updated regularly due to compliance issues.

Summary of Key Figures

Conclusion

The report indicates that the US spirits market has shown some resilience despite ongoing challenges, with volume growth and slight improvements in price/mix. Beer sales remain stable, with some brands like Michelob Ultra showing positive momentum. Key players such as Diageo, Pernod Ricard, and Remy Cointreau had mixed results, with Diageo showing a small improvement and others struggling. The data also highlights the continued decline in hard seltzer sales, though some brands are showing signs of recovery.