2024年可再生能源行业展望-英-40页_12mb

2024 Renewable Energy Industry Outlook Summary

Core Content

The 2024 renewable energy industry outlook highlights the variable-speed growth of renewables, driven by historic federal investments and decarbonization demand, while also facing challenges in grid infrastructure, supply chains, and workforce development.

Main Trends and Key Information

1. Renewable Deployment Growth

• Solar and Storage:

  • Solar capacity additions in the US outpaced other sources in 2023, with 9 GW of utility-scale solar added, a 36% increase from 2022.
  • Solar and storage are expected to grow significantly in 2024, with solar investment projected to rise by 34% and storage by 51%.
  • The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA) have boosted solar and storage through tax credits and grants.
  • Tax credit adders are expected to shape market offerings, with a focus on community solar and third-party owned projects.

• Wind:

  • Wind capacity additions dropped by 57% in 2023, with only 2.8 GW added.
  • Offshore wind faced significant cost increases and permitting delays, with LCOE rising 50% from 2021 to 2023.
  • Wind investment fell by 35% over the past year due to cost and permitting challenges.
  • Wind projects face the longest delays in the clean energy pipeline, with some projects delayed up to 16 months.

• Hydrogen:

  • The IIJA and IRA have set the stage for a green hydrogen economy.
  • There is a large gap between announced and actual investments in hydrogen, with over $50 billion in announced investments and less than $1 billion in actual.
  • Treasury guidance on hydrogen tax credits is critical to unlocking investment.
  • The US is expected to benefit from the EU's clean hydrogen import market if guidance aligns with EU standards.
  • The country's first end-to-end green hydrogen system is anticipated in 2024.

• Energy Efficiency:

  • Energy efficiency investment fell short of targets, with heat pump deployments growing only 1% over the past year.
  • Final DOE guidance on customer rebate programs could drive growth in 2024.
  • The US Climate Alliance aims to install 20 million heat pumps by 2030.

2. Supply Chain Reshoring

• The IRA is driving a domestic clean energy manufacturing revival.

• Over $91 billion in investments have been announced in over 200 manufacturing projects since the IRA passed.

• Solar and Storage:

  • Domestic solar manufacturing capacity is expected to surge, with announced projects likely to more than triple 2023's module capacity.
  • The US is moving toward self-sufficiency in solar components, with new domestic polysilicon, cell, and wafer manufacturing plants expected in 2024.
  • Battery manufacturing is also advancing, with planned capacity growth from 4% to 15% of global capacity by 2026.
  • However, lithium-ion battery imports reached record levels in 2023, and the US remains dependent on imports for some components.
  • The Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act and trade rules may help address overcapacity concerns in solar.

• Wind:

  • Wind supply chains are more domestically rooted than solar, but offshore wind is still heavily reliant on Chinese exports.
  • Chinese turbine prices are 70% lower than Western counterparts, leading to a 70% share of wind turbine orders in the first half of 2023.
  • Meeting offshore wind targets will require $22.4 billion in new manufacturing facilities and infrastructure.

• Hydrogen:

  • Electrolyzer manufacturing capacity in the US is expected to grow, with 9 GW of announced capacity, though only a quarter is likely to come online in 2024.
  • The DOE estimates electrolyzer capacity must grow at 20% CAGR to meet demand through 2050.
  • Final Treasury guidance on hydrogen tax credits could drive demand and reshape the market.

3. Critical Minerals Challenges

• The IRA has increased demand for critical minerals like lithium, cobalt, nickel, and copper.
• By 2035, demand for lithium and cobalt is expected to rise 15% and 13%, respectively, over pre-IRA levels.
• Nickel and copper demand are projected to grow 14% and 12%, respectively.
• China dominates global production of these minerals, with significant investments in nickel mining.
• Shortages of these minerals are expected to reach 10–40% by 2030 due to underinvestment and long lead times.
• The discovery of a large lithium deposit in Nevada and the development of alternatives like sodium batteries could impact the market.

4. Workforce and Skills Development

• The renewable sector is creating jobs, with 19 million job-years expected over the lifetime of the IIJA and IRA.
• Most jobs are available to workers without a bachelor's degree, and they tend to offer higher median wages.
• However, benefits and unionization rates are lower, and women and minority groups are underrepresented.
• A half-million construction workforce shortage could constrain project development.
• Clean hydrogen is expected to create significant new job opportunities, with 324,280 direct jobs across 16 states.
• Skill gaps are a growing concern, with green job postings rising 20% in 2022 but green talent only growing 8.4%.

5. Regulatory and Market Developments

• Regulatory boosts, including tax credits and grants, are expected to address grid constraints and transmission bottlenecks.
• Transmission capacity needs to more than double and quintuple by 2035 to meet clean energy growth projections.
• The DOE is working on accelerating high-voltage transmission line permitting and funding.
• Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) compliance plans and ISO initiatives are expected to reduce interconnection queues.
• Corporations are increasingly involved in transmission-related regulatory filings as renewable targets face delays.

6. Technology and Innovation

• Generative AI is being used to streamline permitting, optimize project configurations, and assess community sentiment.
• It is also helping developers design more efficient solar panels and wind turbines.
• AI is expected to drive increased data center demand for clean electricity, five- to sevenfold in some cases.
• The emergence of new technologies like underground renewables and modular electrolyzers could reshape the industry in 2024.

Key Challenges

• Grid and Transmission: Insufficient transmission capacity is a major constraint on renewable deployment, with congestion costs rising 72% in 2022.
• Supply Chain: While reshoring is underway, the US remains reliant on imports for many components, particularly in the early stages of hydrogen and storage development.
• Workforce: A skills gap persists, with green job postings growing faster than green talent.
• Cost and Permitting: Rising costs, especially for offshore wind, and permitting delays are major obstacles.

Summary

The 2024 renewable energy outlook shows a mixed picture, with solar and storage experiencing strong growth, while wind and hydrogen face hurdles. Federal investments and decarbonization demand are driving the industry forward, but challenges such as grid limitations, supply chain dependencies, and workforce reskilling must be addressed. The reshoring of manufacturing, supported by the IRA, is expected to enhance domestic capacity and reduce reliance on imports. As the industry evolves, generative AI and new technologies will play a critical role in overcoming deployment bottlenecks and improving efficiency.