IMF-英国_2025年第四条磋商新闻稿；员工报告；联合王国执行主任的发言（英）-2025.7_91页_3mb

IMF 2025 Article IV Consultation with the United Kingdom Summary

Core Content

The IMF conducted a 2025 Article IV consultation with the United Kingdom, focusing on economic recovery, fiscal and monetary policy, financial stability, and structural reforms. The consultation concluded on July 21, 2025, and the report was completed on July 1, 2025, following discussions with UK officials from May 27, 2025.

Main Points

Economic Recovery and Outlook

• The UK economy is recovering, with growth projected at 1.2% in 2025 and 1.4% in 2026.
• The recovery is expected to be driven by private consumption, monetary easing, positive wealth effects, and increased confidence.
• Headline inflation is projected to rise temporarily, peaking at 3.2% in 2025, and then decline to 2.3% in 2026, due to regulated price increases, NIC rate hikes, and waning base effects from energy prices.
• Global trade tensions are expected to reduce UK GDP by 0.3% by 2026, due to uncertainty, slower activity in trading partners, and US tariffs.

Risks to Growth

• Tighter financial conditions, rising precautionary saving, and persistent trade uncertainty pose risks to the recovery.
• A significant rise in commodity prices could intensify inflationary pressures.

Fiscal Policy

• The UK's fiscal strategy supports growth while safeguarding sustainability.
• The public sector overall balance is projected to improve from -4.7% of GDP in FY2024/25 to -1.9% in FY2030/31.
• Public sector net financial liabilities (PSNFL) are expected to increase from 81.5% of GDP in FY2024/25 to 83.4% in FY2030/31.
• The Cyclically-Adjusted Primary Balance (CAPB) ratio is expected to improve from -1.8% in FY2024/25 to 1.1% in FY2030/31.

Monetary Policy

• The Bank of England (BoE) should continue with a gradual and flexible approach to monetary easing.
• The BoE's transition to a demand-driven repo-based framework is appropriate to mitigate balance sheet risks while maintaining monetary control.
• The Bank Rate is expected to decline to 3.2% in 2025, with further reductions to 3% in 2026Q3.

Financial Stability

• The financial sector remains broadly resilient, and macroprudential settings are appropriate.
• Non-bank financial institutions (NBFI) have made progress in reducing vulnerabilities, but more action is needed at both domestic and international levels.
• The gilt market resilience should be enhanced due to increased global uncertainty.

Structural Reforms

• The Growth Mission focuses on the right structural areas, including policy stability, planning reforms, and skills development.
• Prioritization and sequencing of reforms are essential for success.
• Clear communication is critical to build support for complex reforms and ensure quick wins.

Key Recommendations

• Fiscal policy should continue to balance growth support with sustainability, and further refinements to the fiscal framework are needed to enhance predictability.
• The BoE should maintain gradual monetary easing, strengthen forecasting and communication, and continue the transition to a smaller balance sheet.
• Financial sector policies should focus on resilience and growth, with more attention to gilt market stability and AML/CFT frameworks.
• Structural reforms should prioritize policy stability, planning flexibility, and human capital development.

Document Structure

• Press Release: Summarizes the Executive Board's views.
• Staff Report: Analyzes economic developments, outlook, and policy discussions.
• Statement by the Executive Director: Reflects the UK's position and responses to the IMF's recommendations.
• Informational Annex: Provides additional details and supporting data.

Selected Economic Indicators (2019–2030)

Conclusion

The IMF Executive Board generally agreed with the staff's assessment, commending the UK's efforts to foster policy stability and pro-growth reforms. However, they emphasized the need to manage risks, maintain fiscal discipline, and enhance financial market resilience. The UK's Growth Mission is seen as well-aligned with past IMF recommendations and should be pursued with careful prioritization, clear communication, and continued reform efforts.