IMF-尼加拉瓜：2023年第四条磋商新闻稿；和员工报告（英）-2024.1-113页_1mb

Nicaragua 2023 Article IV Consultation Summary

Core Content

The IMF Country Report No. 24/18 provides an assessment of Nicaragua's economic situation and policy recommendations for the 2023 Article IV consultation. The report highlights the country's resilience in the face of multiple shocks, including the 2018-19 socio-political crisis, the pandemic, and natural disasters. The economic outlook remains positive but is subject to various risks, with the IMF recommending continued prudent fiscal, monetary, and financial policies to support stability and growth.

Main Economic Developments

• Economic Resilience: Nicaragua's economy has shown resilience over the past five years, supported by appropriate macroeconomic policies, substantial buffers (primarily government deposits), and multilateral support.
• Growth: After a strong rebound in 2021, the economy grew steadily at about 4 percent in 2023, with real GDP growth expected to converge to 3.5 percent in 2024.
• Inflation: Inflation declined significantly in 2023, from 12.2 percent in October 2022 to 6 percent in October 2023, driven by falling transportation and food prices. Core inflation also declined to 5.7 percent.
• Remittances: Remittances doubled since end-2021 and reached about 28 percent of GDP in 2023, contributing to a current account surplus of 4 percent of GDP.
• Foreign Exchange Reserves: Gross international reserves (GIR) reached about US$5 billion by end-October 2023, equivalent to 6 months of imports (excluding maquila).
• FDI: Sustained Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and strong remittances helped offset the deterioration in the trade balance.
• Fiscal Position: The consolidated public sector balance turned into a small surplus of 0.1 percent of GDP in 2022, supported by higher tax revenues and reduced overall spending.

Key Risks

• Downside Risks: Deterioration of the terms of trade, a more severe global downturn, natural disasters, and stricter international sanctions could negatively affect the economy.
• Natural Disasters: Given Nicaragua's exposure and reliance on climate-sensitive sectors, economic activity and social outcomes remain vulnerable to such events.
• Sanctions: Stricter international sanctions could further impact the economic outlook, especially as they target key officials and state-owned entities.

Policy Recommendations

Fiscal Policy

• Fiscal Sustainability: The staff supported the authorities' plans to maintain prudent fiscal policy and recommended more ambitious fiscal efforts to entrench sustainability, increase buffers, and create fiscal space for social and capital spending.
• Structural Reforms: Address structural imbalances in the social security system (pensions) and improve the effective application of the AML/CFT framework to maintain compliance with international standards.
• Transparency: Improve fiscal transparency, including the publication of all audit reports related to pandemic-related funds and the financial statements of state-owned enterprises (SOEs).

Monetary Policy

• Exchange Rate Stability: Continue to gear monetary policy towards maintaining the exchange rate regime and safeguarding price stability.
• Interest Rates: Maintain the monetary reference rate at 7 percent, as the Central Bank of Nicaragua (BCN) has done since November 2023, despite the U.S. Federal Reserve's tightening.
• Exchange Rate Crawl: Decrease the crawling rate of the exchange rate, from 2 percent to 1 percent in 2023, and aim to reduce it to 0 in 2024 as reserve accumulation continues.

Financial Sector

• Stability and Resilience: Enhance the resilience of the financial sector through proactive provisioning, increased FX risk monitoring, and strengthened crisis preparedness.
• Lending Practices: Preserve sound lending practices by activating countercyclical buffers and increasing minimum credit card payments.
• Data Quality: Improve data quality and institutional capacity in financial and statistical matters.

Medium-Term Growth

• Investment: Continue to invest in human capital and infrastructure to support long-term growth.
• Labor Force Participation: Implement policies to raise labor force participation and improve the business environment.
• Institutions: Strengthen government institutions and frameworks in contract enforcement, property rights, and insolvency resolution.

Governance and Rule of Law

• Anti-Corruption: Strengthen governance and anti-corruption frameworks, particularly the rule of law, to ensure fair and impartial access to administrative and judicial proceedings.
• AML/CFT: Improve the effective application of the AML/CFT framework, including publishing asset declarations of politically exposed persons and implementing risk-based assessments.
• Whistleblower Protection: Enact whistleblower protection regulations to enhance transparency and accountability.

Key Indicators (Table 1)

Summary

Nicaragua's economy has demonstrated resilience amid multiple shocks, with continued growth and improved fiscal and monetary positions. The IMF's staff report highlights the importance of maintaining prudent policies and enhancing institutional capacity to ensure long-term stability. The country is at moderate risk of external and public debt distress, and risks include potential global downturns, natural disasters, and international sanctions. The report emphasizes the need for stronger governance, improved transparency, and sustained efforts to combat corruption and enhance the rule of law.