IMF-吉尔吉斯斯坦共和国_2025年第四条磋商新闻稿；员工报告（英）-2025_83页_2mb

Kyrgyz Republic 2025 Article IV Consultation Summary

Core Content

The Kyrgyz Republic has demonstrated strong economic performance in 2025 despite global uncertainties, with robust growth, stable inflation, and declining public debt. The IMF's Article IV consultation highlights the country's resilience and outlines key policy recommendations to sustain macroeconomic stability and support inclusive growth.

Main Economic Developments

• Growth: The economy grew at 9% annually since 2022, with headline inflation returning to the central bank's target range and public debt falling to 36.6% of GDP in 2024.
• Outlook: Growth is expected to moderate to 6.8% in 2025 and converge to about 5.25% in the medium term as re-export trade normalizes and domestic demand slows.
• Inflation: Inflation is projected to remain stable under prudent monetary policy, though core inflation has been declining since 2023.
• Public Debt: Public debt is expected to stay below 42% of GDP due to strong GDP growth, even with increased public investments.

Key Policy Recommendations

A. Fiscal Policy

• Fiscal Sustainability: Enhance tax policy by reducing exemptions and special regimes, increasing the progressivity of personal income tax, and strengthening revenue administration.
• Fiscal Space: Contain the public wage bill and energy subsidies, channel Kumtor profits to the budget, and privatize nonstrategic SOEs to create fiscal space for development needs.
• Budget Projections: The 2025 budget is expected to have a deficit of 3.4% of GDP, with tax revenue declining by 1% and non-tax revenue decreasing by 3.4%. Capital expenditure is projected to rise to 8.7% of GDP, driven by infrastructure projects.

B. Monetary Policy

• Monetary Independence: Preserve monetary policy independence to anchor inflation and maintain price stability.
• Policy Tools: Improve monetary policy effectiveness by removing interest rate caps, extending instrument maturities, phasing out subsidized lending, and increasing exchange rate flexibility.
• Central Bank Profits: The NBKR should retain profits until its capital reaches the statutory threshold to strengthen credibility.

C. Structural Reforms

• Governance and SOEs: Strengthen governance, the rule of law, and reduce the state's footprint in the economy to enhance competition and trust in public institutions.
• Labor Market: Promote labor market flexibility, reduce gender gaps, and improve social safety nets to support inclusive growth.
• Anti-Corruption: Implement the anti-corruption strategy to build a more resilient and dynamic economy.
• Infrastructure and Energy: Invest in sustainable energy and infrastructure, as well as health and education, to improve resilience to climate risks.

Key Risks and Uncertainties

• Geopolitical Factors: The outlook is highly dependent on regional geopolitical developments, particularly the status of Russia and the impact of Western sanctions.
• Re-exports: The normalization of re-export trade and changes in Russia's tax regime could affect the current account deficit and growth.
• External Shocks: Risks include a reversal of gold price surges, global oil price increases, extreme weather events, and cyberthreats.
• Sanctions and Trade: A lasting peace in the region could strengthen the ruble and growth in Russia, but may also reduce trade and financial flows.

Authorities' Views

• The authorities agree with the staff's assessment but expect GDP growth to remain higher for longer.
• They attribute the strong growth to public administration reforms, digitalization, large public investments, and targeted support to key sectors.
• They plan to continue these measures and project medium-term growth of about 8% annually.

Key Indicators

Key Reforms and Initiatives

• Infrastructure Projects: The China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway and Kambarata-1 HPP are expected to boost growth, with the railway contributing about 1.25% and the HPP about 1.25% in 2025 and 2027.
• Sovereign Credit Rating: The recent upgrade by S&P to B+ with a stable outlook supports access to international capital markets.
• Fiscal and Monetary Buffers: Rebuilding policy buffers, enhancing fiscal sustainability, and preserving monetary independence are essential for long-term stability.

Conclusion

The Kyrgyz Republic's economic performance has been impressive, but maintaining this momentum requires continued focus on fiscal and monetary discipline, structural reforms, and the management of external risks. The IMF recommends strengthening resilience and fostering inclusive growth through targeted policy actions.