2025-05-22-Jefferies-小鹏汽车（XPEV）_第一季度业绩符合预期；下半年产品可见性提高_7页_113kb

Summary of XPeng Equity Research Report

Date: May 22, 2025

Company Overview

XPeng designs, produces, and distributes electric vehicles, focusing on smart EVs in China's mid-to-high-end market. The company emphasizes in-house development of autonomous driving technology and core vehicle systems, aiming to target technology-savvy consumers.

Financial Performance

• Q1 2025: Revenue rose 141% YoY to RMB15.8bn; net loss narrowed by RMB666mn QoQ to RMB664mn.
• Margins: Overall GPM improved to 15.6%, up 1.1pct QoQ; vehicle GPM increased to 10.5% on cost reductions and economies of scale.
• R&D Spend: Ratio to sales reduced to 12.5%; non-GAAP net loss may widen in Q2 due to one-time regulatory subsidies.

Product and Future Outlook

• H1-2H2025 Launches: New models include G7 ($22.25), E29 (price $28.80), and EREV models, targeting higher ASPs (>RMB200k) to drive revenue growth.
• Guidance: Full-year sales volume expected to double YoY, reaching 471k-667k units by 2026.
• Profitability: Mgmt projects vehicle GPM improvements and overall GPM reaching high teens in Q4, with profitability expected in Q4 2025.

Strategic Initiatives

• Overseas Expansion: Export sales grew 370% YoY in Q1; exploring Latin America and Asia.
• Tech Developments: Turing chip enhances computing power; humanoid robots share many development resources with smart driving systems.

Analyst Recommendations and Valuation

• Rating: BUY; price target at $28.80 (HK$112.60), based on 25x FY27E earnings.
• Jefferies View: Highlights XPeng's product cycle start and NDR participation; NDR was an integral part of the assessment.

Risks

• Downside Factors: Intensifying competition in NEV market; setbacks in autonomous driving; tariffs impacting profitability.

Key Metrics

• First Profit Expected: In Q4 2025.
• GPM Targets: High teens in Q4 2025.

Note: Due to specific guidelines, financial data has been presented factually without additional interpretation.