2025-08-18-莱坊-Kampala_Property_Market_Performance_Review_H1_2025页_4mb

报告摘要

Economic Growth: Uganda's economy grew by 6.3% in FY2024/25, driven by the services sector (41.9% of GDP) and improved trade dynamics.
Inflation: Headline inflation rose to 3.9% by June 2025, with core inflation fluctuating between 3.6% and 4.2%. Inflationary pressures remain moderate but persistent.
Monetary Policy: The Central Bank Rate (CBR) remained unchanged at 9.75% since October 2024, reflecting a tight monetary stance.
Exchange Rate: The Uganda Shilling appreciated by 3.8% year-on-year, supported by foreign exchange inflows and stable monetary policy.

Occupancy: Dropped to 80% in H1 2025, down 1% from H1 2024, due to oversupply and shifting tenant preferences.
Rental Rates: Average rents for two-bedroom units declined by 7%, while three-bedroom units remained stable.
Tenant Shift: Western expatriate demand declined, partially offset by rising interest from Asian professionals.
Secondary Suburbs: Experiencing growth in occupancy and short-stay listings, driven by affordability and lifestyle changes.
Short-Term Rentals: A surge in Airbnb and Booking.com listings, with daily rates for one-bedroom units falling to $40–50 and occupancy below 50%.
Gated Communities: Increasing popularity among locals due to enhanced infrastructure, safety, and convenience.
Development Trends: High-density residential projects are expanding in prime areas, driven by rising land values and urban densification needs.
Sales and Lettings: Subdued in prime areas with extended transaction timelines and price negotiations. Secondary markets like Kira and Najjera show more activity.

Occupancy: Grade A offices dropped by 5%, and Grade AB by 2%, as new supply outpaced demand.
Rental Rates: Grade A offices averaged $16.5 per square meter per month, with new developments commanding $18–$22 per sqm.
Leasing Activity: Increased demand for smaller spaces and flexible lease terms, particularly from consulting, ICT, and professional services firms.
Tenant Preferences: Shift from traditional CBD offices to suburban locations, with a growing interest in condominium-style office spaces for ownership flexibility.
Market Dynamics: Vacancy rates rose due to downsizing by government agencies and NGOs, and tenant relocations to newer Grade A spaces.

Footfall: Increased by 13% in H1 2025, supported by new international brands, mall activations, and improved infrastructure.
Occupancy: Improved by 2% in Knight Frank-managed malls, with stable rental rates.

Occupancy: Remained above 80%, with warehouse rents stable at $3–$7 per square meter per month.
Demand Drivers: Agro-processing, FMCG, and manufacturing sectors.
New Developments: Emerged in Nalukolongo and Namanve.
Policy Support: Uganda Tax Amendment Act 2025 introduced tax incentives for local SMEs, and infrastructure projects like the Standard Gauge Railway are enhancing sector fundamentals.

Office Condominiums: A new model offering ownership of individual units within a complex, with legal frameworks including the Condominium Property Act and Land Act.
Advantages: Cost predictability, customization, and long-term investment potential.
Limitations: Limited flexibility and higher initial investment compared to traditional leasing.
Market Response: Landlords are adapting with fit-out incentives and flexible lease structures to attract tenants.

RAPEX Program: Aims to rationalize 33 government agencies, expected to save UGX1 trillion annually by improving efficiency and reducing duplication.
USAID Funding Suspension: Caused disruptions in health, education, and governance sectors, leading to layoffs and reduced NGO operations. The government increased the health budget to UGX5.87 trillion to address the shortfall.

Residential Market: Expected to see further rent moderation or incentives from landlords. Secondary suburbs may continue to gain traction, while prime areas may face challenges in absorbing new supply.
Office Market: Continued shift to suburban locations and condominium-style spaces. Occupancy may stabilize with improved tenant retention strategies.
Economic Uncertainty: Cautious optimism prevails ahead of the 2026 elections. Market adaptability, infrastructure delivery, and alignment with tenant expectations will be key to performance in the second half of 2025.

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